🧠 Trading Thesis: “Silicon Whiplash – AMD Coiling for a Re-Launch to $164+?”
📉 Ticker:
AMD
🗓️ Timeframe: Daily (1D)
📍 Current Price: $144.42
📈 Fibonacci Expansion Target: $164.54 (1.236 extension), $174.98 (1.382 extension)
📉 Support Zone: $120.78
🔭 Play Duration: 2–4 weeks (event-based structure)
🔍 WaverVanir Thesis
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is presenting a high-conviction pullback-to-launchpad setup.
After reaching the $147.75 resistance (1.0 Fib extension), AMD has begun carving out a potential W-pattern reaccumulation that could send it to $164.54+. This setup aligns with AI infrastructure momentum and strong GPU/CPU roadmap tailwinds into Q3.
⚡ Catalyst Radar
🚀 MI300 AI GPU Rollout: Recent guidance confirms massive momentum in AMD's data center AI segment, expected to double in Q3. MI300X is gaining traction in the hyperscaler race (vs. NVDA).
💰 AI Arms Race: AMD is aggressively capturing GPU demand in sovereign AI, defense compute, and private AI stack builders (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta).
📅 Earnings Catalyst: Next report in early August. Expect YoY revenue growth rebound + margin guidance upgrade.
📐 Technical Blueprint
📉 Support Zone: $120.78 (Golden Pocket reversion area)
📊 Pullback Scenario: If price rejects from $147.75 again, a W-pattern retrace to $124–121 would offer a prime long entry.
📈 Upside Targets:
Target 1: $164.54 (1.236 Fib extension)
Target 2: $174.98 (1.382 extension)
🔍 WaverVanir DSS Signal
The DSS signal model confirms:
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) bullish orderblock was reclaimed at $115
Volume profile shows breakout from low-volume node — setting up for a clean sweep to higher liquidity zones
Momentum divergence on RSI and MACD supports the "cool-off before liftoff" thesis
🧠 Strategic Setup
Scenario Trigger Action
Bullish Continuation Break + close above $148 Chase breakout with $155/$165 calls
W Reversion Entry Drop to $124–121 with holding wick Long entry with call spreads into earnings
Bearish Breakdown Close below $118 Wait and reassess — structure invalidated
⚠️ Risk Management: Tighten stops below $117. Risk defined. No long if structure breaks down on high volume.
✅ Summary
AMD’s structure screams accumulation, not distribution. The convergence of technical structure, fundamental catalysts, and AI expansion cycles makes this one of the highest-risk-adjusted setups heading into earnings season. We are watching for pullbacks to enter long toward $164–175.
🧩 #Tags:
#WaverVanir #AMD #Semiconductors #AITrade #MI300 #GPUWar #FibExpansion #TradingThesis #NVDA #OptionsFlow #AIInfrastructure #SmartMoneyConcepts #VolumeProfile #WPattern #NASDAQ100
📉 Ticker:
AMD🗓️ Timeframe: Daily (1D)
📍 Current Price: $144.42
📈 Fibonacci Expansion Target: $164.54 (1.236 extension), $174.98 (1.382 extension)
📉 Support Zone: $120.78
🔭 Play Duration: 2–4 weeks (event-based structure)
🔍 WaverVanir Thesis
Advanced Micro Devices (
AMD) is presenting a high-conviction pullback-to-launchpad setup.After reaching the $147.75 resistance (1.0 Fib extension), AMD has begun carving out a potential W-pattern reaccumulation that could send it to $164.54+. This setup aligns with AI infrastructure momentum and strong GPU/CPU roadmap tailwinds into Q3.
⚡ Catalyst Radar
🚀 MI300 AI GPU Rollout: Recent guidance confirms massive momentum in AMD's data center AI segment, expected to double in Q3. MI300X is gaining traction in the hyperscaler race (vs. NVDA).
💰 AI Arms Race: AMD is aggressively capturing GPU demand in sovereign AI, defense compute, and private AI stack builders (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta).
📅 Earnings Catalyst: Next report in early August. Expect YoY revenue growth rebound + margin guidance upgrade.
📐 Technical Blueprint
📉 Support Zone: $120.78 (Golden Pocket reversion area)
📊 Pullback Scenario: If price rejects from $147.75 again, a W-pattern retrace to $124–121 would offer a prime long entry.
📈 Upside Targets:
Target 1: $164.54 (1.236 Fib extension)
Target 2: $174.98 (1.382 extension)
🔍 WaverVanir DSS Signal
The DSS signal model confirms:
Smart Money Concepts (SMC) bullish orderblock was reclaimed at $115
Volume profile shows breakout from low-volume node — setting up for a clean sweep to higher liquidity zones
Momentum divergence on RSI and MACD supports the "cool-off before liftoff" thesis
🧠 Strategic Setup
Scenario Trigger Action
Bullish Continuation Break + close above $148 Chase breakout with $155/$165 calls
W Reversion Entry Drop to $124–121 with holding wick Long entry with call spreads into earnings
Bearish Breakdown Close below $118 Wait and reassess — structure invalidated
⚠️ Risk Management: Tighten stops below $117. Risk defined. No long if structure breaks down on high volume.
✅ Summary
AMD’s structure screams accumulation, not distribution. The convergence of technical structure, fundamental catalysts, and AI expansion cycles makes this one of the highest-risk-adjusted setups heading into earnings season. We are watching for pullbacks to enter long toward $164–175.
🧩 #Tags:
#WaverVanir #AMD #Semiconductors #AITrade #MI300 #GPUWar #FibExpansion #TradingThesis #NVDA #OptionsFlow #AIInfrastructure #SmartMoneyConcepts #VolumeProfile #WPattern #NASDAQ100
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.