AMD...What's next?

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The Good (Bullish Side)

Uptrend Recovery: After bottoming near $76 in April 2025, AMD has made a strong rebound, more than doubling into the $180s. That’s a powerful recovery with momentum behind it.

Support Levels: $140.98 (Bull Target 1, now support) held beautifully during the climb. As long as price stays above that zone, bulls remain in control.

EMA Structure: The green ribbon is showing bullish alignment, with short-term EMAs stacked above longer-term ones. Trend is intact despite the pullback.

Targets: Bull target 2 is $183.56. If AMD breaks above $186.65 (recent resistance), it has room to run higher.

The Bad (Bearish Side)

Resistance at $186.65: Price already got rejected at that level. Until AMD closes convincingly above it, this ceiling is heavy.

Lower High Risk: If AMD fails to reclaim $186 and rolls over, it risks forming a lower high — which could signal a deeper retrace.

Macro Weakness: Semi stocks (including AMD) are cyclical. If broader tech/economy cools, AMD can easily retrace to the $140–150 zone.

“Too Good to Be True” Filter

The recent rally from ~$76 to ~$186 is a 142% move in ~4 months. Moves that vertical rarely sustain without corrections. Expect at least some chop or a larger retracement before continuation.

Cost vs. Benefit Analysis

Chasing now (~$168–170): High risk since you’re buying under resistance. Best case you capture a breakout, worst case you eat a $20–30 pullback.

Waiting for confirmation ($186+ breakout): Lower risk entry, but you’ll miss the first 10% of the move.

Buying a retrace to $150–155: Better reward/risk, but you risk missing the run if it never pulls back that far.

✅ Bottom Line: Looking good overall, but this is not a safe buy point. AMD is stuck between resistance and support. Smart money waits for either a breakout above $186 with volume or a dip closer to $150 for better risk/reward.

Penafian

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