By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution may face its most unexpected limit: energy. According to Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE: APO), the current global energy system will not be able to sustain the growth pace of AI, not even within a generation.
In a recent interview, Dave Stangis, Chief Sustainability Officer at Apollo, warned that “the energy demand required by AI far exceeds the generation and transmission capacity of the global grid.” Far from being alarmist, this statement highlights a reality that markets are beginning to factor in: the digital future could depend more on oil prices and electrical infrastructure than on Nvidia chips.
Fundamental Analysis: The New Energy Imbalance
Data centers powering AI currently consume an estimated 4% of the world’s electricity, a figure that could double by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Meanwhile, investment in power generation and transmission is not keeping pace, creating a structural supply deficit.
On the stock market, major tech companies—Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon—remain the Nasdaq's driving engines, but their energy-intensive growth could pressure margins if electricity costs continue rising.
Conversely, energy companies are emerging as potential indirect winners of this revolution. Firms like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) have strong balance sheets, stable cash flows, and attractive dividend policies, trading at P/E ratios around 12x, well below those of the tech sector. Brent crude remains near $88 per barrel, supported by global demand and OPEC+ production cuts, while energy companies benefit from firm prices and potential expansion of traditional and renewable power capacity.
Technical Analysis: A Quiet Rotation Toward Energy
On the daily chart, Apollo Global Management shows a long-term bearish trend. After consistently resisting the $120 price zone, the stock closed yesterday with a correction at $123.05. The price has stayed below the 50-day moving average since a new bearish trend consolidated on October 2.
If the current price breaks the $125 zone, we could see a recovery trend toward the control point around $132, a level where it has fluctuated since March. The RSI indicates oversold conditions at 41.21%, accompanied by a bearish MACD with a histogram entering positive territory, suggesting either consolidation or increasing buying pressure.
Meanwhile, the ActivTrades US Market Pulse shows a neutral risk environment after several days in Risk Off territory, which had driven significant selling ahead of the quarter’s close. This suggests the stock is seeking to recover lost value and find equilibrium. Notably, the Nasdaq’s correction has dragged many tech companies into a consolidation phase after a period of euphoria, while the energy sector gains traction, supported by solid fundamentals and stable crude prices.
AI Redefines the Energy Map
Apollo’s analysis highlights a reality markets are beginning to internalize: AI not only redefines productivity but also the global energy landscape. The challenge will not be creating smarter models, but generating enough energy to sustain them. In this equation, capital appears to be shifting from silicon toward oil and electrical grids.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution may face its most unexpected limit: energy. According to Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE: APO), the current global energy system will not be able to sustain the growth pace of AI, not even within a generation.
In a recent interview, Dave Stangis, Chief Sustainability Officer at Apollo, warned that “the energy demand required by AI far exceeds the generation and transmission capacity of the global grid.” Far from being alarmist, this statement highlights a reality that markets are beginning to factor in: the digital future could depend more on oil prices and electrical infrastructure than on Nvidia chips.
Fundamental Analysis: The New Energy Imbalance
Data centers powering AI currently consume an estimated 4% of the world’s electricity, a figure that could double by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Meanwhile, investment in power generation and transmission is not keeping pace, creating a structural supply deficit.
On the stock market, major tech companies—Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon—remain the Nasdaq's driving engines, but their energy-intensive growth could pressure margins if electricity costs continue rising.
Conversely, energy companies are emerging as potential indirect winners of this revolution. Firms like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) have strong balance sheets, stable cash flows, and attractive dividend policies, trading at P/E ratios around 12x, well below those of the tech sector. Brent crude remains near $88 per barrel, supported by global demand and OPEC+ production cuts, while energy companies benefit from firm prices and potential expansion of traditional and renewable power capacity.
Technical Analysis: A Quiet Rotation Toward Energy
On the daily chart, Apollo Global Management shows a long-term bearish trend. After consistently resisting the $120 price zone, the stock closed yesterday with a correction at $123.05. The price has stayed below the 50-day moving average since a new bearish trend consolidated on October 2.
If the current price breaks the $125 zone, we could see a recovery trend toward the control point around $132, a level where it has fluctuated since March. The RSI indicates oversold conditions at 41.21%, accompanied by a bearish MACD with a histogram entering positive territory, suggesting either consolidation or increasing buying pressure.
Meanwhile, the ActivTrades US Market Pulse shows a neutral risk environment after several days in Risk Off territory, which had driven significant selling ahead of the quarter’s close. This suggests the stock is seeking to recover lost value and find equilibrium. Notably, the Nasdaq’s correction has dragged many tech companies into a consolidation phase after a period of euphoria, while the energy sector gains traction, supported by solid fundamentals and stable crude prices.
AI Redefines the Energy Map
Apollo’s analysis highlights a reality markets are beginning to internalize: AI not only redefines productivity but also the global energy landscape. The challenge will not be creating smarter models, but generating enough energy to sustain them. In this equation, capital appears to be shifting from silicon toward oil and electrical grids.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.