Panjang
ASTR Upside Story
Why is the stock down?
1) Locked up shares were allowed to be traded, flooding the market with shares
2) Kerrisdale Capital coincided point 1 by coming out with a short report
That's great! We can now buy shares at less than it IPO'd / SPAC'd for ($10/share).
Why is this the bottom?
- Since formally trading has dropped 50-60%, 3 times. We are currently at the 3rd time.
- RSI is below 30 for the first time ever
Why Kerrisdale Capital is wrong:
- If you read the report, 90% of it reflects that $/kg to space is higher than others. No shit it is. Astra is launching the smallest commercial rocket ever (200kg to orbit)
- What this means is that their $ price tag per launch is cheapest for the whole rocket than any other competitor (despite $/kg not being cheapest)
- Sure, SmallSats can rideshare, but for just $2.5m with Astra they can go wherever they want, and the total $ value will be less than all competitors for that
Downside Risk: ~$4/share: This value is:
1) $1 billion market cap
2) convergence of LT and ST descending wedges
This is another ~40% down from where we are at today ($5.60/share)
1) Locked up shares were allowed to be traded, flooding the market with shares
2) Kerrisdale Capital coincided point 1 by coming out with a short report
That's great! We can now buy shares at less than it IPO'd / SPAC'd for ($10/share).
Why is this the bottom?
- Since formally trading has dropped 50-60%, 3 times. We are currently at the 3rd time.
- RSI is below 30 for the first time ever
Why Kerrisdale Capital is wrong:
- If you read the report, 90% of it reflects that $/kg to space is higher than others. No shit it is. Astra is launching the smallest commercial rocket ever (200kg to orbit)
- What this means is that their $ price tag per launch is cheapest for the whole rocket than any other competitor (despite $/kg not being cheapest)
- Sure, SmallSats can rideshare, but for just $2.5m with Astra they can go wherever they want, and the total $ value will be less than all competitors for that
Downside Risk: ~$4/share: This value is:
1) $1 billion market cap
2) convergence of LT and ST descending wedges
This is another ~40% down from where we are at today ($5.60/share)
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.