1. Technical Analysis
AUD/JPY is trading around 96.90, testing the 97.00–97.50 resistance zone. This area has been rejected multiple times in the past and represents a key technical cluster. The RSI is approaching overbought territory, signaling stretched conditions. Price action shows potential exhaustion of the recent rally: the current candle is struggling to break resistance, and a rejection here could trigger a correction towards the 95.00–94.50 demand zone. Structurally, as long as there is no weekly close above 97.50, the preferred scenario remains short from resistance.
2. COT Report
AUD: Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (129k short vs 28k long). Downside pressure on the Australian Dollar remains strong, supported by institutional positioning.
JPY: Non-Commercials are skewed to the long side (170k long vs 86k short), signaling institutional demand for the Yen as a safe-haven asset.
👉 The COT combination indicates a structural bias in favor of JPY strength and AUD weakness, reinforcing the bearish AUD/JPY outlook.
3. Retail Sentiment
79% short vs 21% long. The majority of retail traders are already short, which increases the risk of a short-term squeeze. However, since price is testing a major resistance zone, upside potential remains limited. A possible “stop hunt” towards 97.50–98.00 would still align with the broader bearish setup.
4. Seasonality
AUD in September: Historically weak, with average negative returns between -0.6% and -1.6% across different time horizons.
JPY in September: Historically strong, with average positive returns of +0.5% to +1.5%.
👉 Seasonality supports a bearish view on AUD/JPY for September.
5. Strategic Outlook
AUD/JPY is at a critical turning point. The macro (COT & seasonality) and technical context support a bearish rejection from 97.00–97.50. However, retail positioning suggests the market may orchestrate one last squeeze towards 98.00 before reversing.
Suggested Strategy: Wait for confirmation of rejection or a false breakout at resistance to enter short positions, targeting 95.50 initially and 94.50 as an extension.
AUD/JPY is trading around 96.90, testing the 97.00–97.50 resistance zone. This area has been rejected multiple times in the past and represents a key technical cluster. The RSI is approaching overbought territory, signaling stretched conditions. Price action shows potential exhaustion of the recent rally: the current candle is struggling to break resistance, and a rejection here could trigger a correction towards the 95.00–94.50 demand zone. Structurally, as long as there is no weekly close above 97.50, the preferred scenario remains short from resistance.
2. COT Report
AUD: Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (129k short vs 28k long). Downside pressure on the Australian Dollar remains strong, supported by institutional positioning.
JPY: Non-Commercials are skewed to the long side (170k long vs 86k short), signaling institutional demand for the Yen as a safe-haven asset.
👉 The COT combination indicates a structural bias in favor of JPY strength and AUD weakness, reinforcing the bearish AUD/JPY outlook.
3. Retail Sentiment
79% short vs 21% long. The majority of retail traders are already short, which increases the risk of a short-term squeeze. However, since price is testing a major resistance zone, upside potential remains limited. A possible “stop hunt” towards 97.50–98.00 would still align with the broader bearish setup.
4. Seasonality
AUD in September: Historically weak, with average negative returns between -0.6% and -1.6% across different time horizons.
JPY in September: Historically strong, with average positive returns of +0.5% to +1.5%.
👉 Seasonality supports a bearish view on AUD/JPY for September.
5. Strategic Outlook
AUD/JPY is at a critical turning point. The macro (COT & seasonality) and technical context support a bearish rejection from 97.00–97.50. However, retail positioning suggests the market may orchestrate one last squeeze towards 98.00 before reversing.
Suggested Strategy: Wait for confirmation of rejection or a false breakout at resistance to enter short positions, targeting 95.50 initially and 94.50 as an extension.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.