The week starting Monday 30 June began with the USD on the back foot in a continuation of the previous week's narrative. With the market anticipating at least two cuts from the FED before year end.
Alongside USD weakness, the overall market mood remained positive, the S&P hovers near all time highs and the VIX remains well below 20 as Middle East concerns ebbed and tariff concerns are put to one side (how long for?).
The 'risk on / weak dollar' narrative remained throughout the week, at least until Fridays 'upside surprise' NFP data. Which is a reminder to expect the unexpected, many analysts predicted a below forecast number, especially given Wednesday's 'soft' ADP data. But a much stronger than forecast headline number gave the USD a boost. And hit the JPY particularly hard as we got an old fashioned stocks up / yields up = risk on day.
I'm doubtful NFP will be a game changer for the USD though. And I begin the new week with my 'risk on' bias intact, comparing the USD and JPY against each other to determine which currency is the best short option. Not ruling out the CHF as a potential short, but the Swiss franc is still having bouts of strength at odds with the overall positive tone.
The potential spanner in the works this coming week will be the tariff narrative. The 90 day reprieve ends on July 9 and we could get some fireworks.
It seems the market is 'hoping' for a blanket 10% across the board. I suspect the best we can hope for this week is a 'kicking of the can down the road'. The worst case scenario would be a resumption of the chaos we saw in April.
In other news, the GBP came under pressure as the government's fiscal policies are scurtinised. I suspect that the UK's relatively high interest rate and the overall 'risk on' market mood, stopped the pound from depreciating further. But it could be a bumpy road ahead for the GBP.
On a personal note. It was a week of 'only' one trade. But that was due to my busy schedule rather than a lack of opportunities. I missed Monday's USD weakness, the potential GBP short catalyst and Thursdays post NFP 'risk on' catalyst.
I did manage an AUD JPY long 'risk on' trade on Wednesday. Which I ultimately closed pre NFP for small profit.
Not ideal, I'd much rather get back to an average of three trades per week. But nonetheless, after a disappointing June, it was nice to get back to winning ways of sorts.
All eyes on the tariff narrative as we move into the new week.
Alongside USD weakness, the overall market mood remained positive, the S&P hovers near all time highs and the VIX remains well below 20 as Middle East concerns ebbed and tariff concerns are put to one side (how long for?).
The 'risk on / weak dollar' narrative remained throughout the week, at least until Fridays 'upside surprise' NFP data. Which is a reminder to expect the unexpected, many analysts predicted a below forecast number, especially given Wednesday's 'soft' ADP data. But a much stronger than forecast headline number gave the USD a boost. And hit the JPY particularly hard as we got an old fashioned stocks up / yields up = risk on day.
I'm doubtful NFP will be a game changer for the USD though. And I begin the new week with my 'risk on' bias intact, comparing the USD and JPY against each other to determine which currency is the best short option. Not ruling out the CHF as a potential short, but the Swiss franc is still having bouts of strength at odds with the overall positive tone.
The potential spanner in the works this coming week will be the tariff narrative. The 90 day reprieve ends on July 9 and we could get some fireworks.
It seems the market is 'hoping' for a blanket 10% across the board. I suspect the best we can hope for this week is a 'kicking of the can down the road'. The worst case scenario would be a resumption of the chaos we saw in April.
In other news, the GBP came under pressure as the government's fiscal policies are scurtinised. I suspect that the UK's relatively high interest rate and the overall 'risk on' market mood, stopped the pound from depreciating further. But it could be a bumpy road ahead for the GBP.
On a personal note. It was a week of 'only' one trade. But that was due to my busy schedule rather than a lack of opportunities. I missed Monday's USD weakness, the potential GBP short catalyst and Thursdays post NFP 'risk on' catalyst.
I did manage an AUD JPY long 'risk on' trade on Wednesday. Which I ultimately closed pre NFP for small profit.
Not ideal, I'd much rather get back to an average of three trades per week. But nonetheless, after a disappointing June, it was nice to get back to winning ways of sorts.
All eyes on the tariff narrative as we move into the new week.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.