(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s current rally has seen price test the mettle of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Technically, the area benefits from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe recently squared off under two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), eventually shipping price through support from 0.6931. Monday returned with a bullish outside day formation, forcing a retest at the underside of 0.6931 on Tuesday.
Support at 0.6755 also remains in view.
It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6664 is in the process of flattening/marginally turning higher, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Following Monday’s recovery out of demand at 0.6773/0.6814, joined with a 38.2% Fib ret level at 0.6808, AUD/USD found trendline resistance (prior support – 0.6856) to be welcoming on Tuesday. This base, together with a 61.8% Fib ret level at 0.6947, sent the pair to lows at 0.6833, throwing light on the possibility of another test of demand at 0.6773/0.6814.
H1 timeframe:
Early US prompted a meaningful decline through 0.69 and the 100-period simple moving average into the 0.6850 base and local support at 0.6845.
The day concluded retesting 0.69 as resistance. Supply at 0.6932/0.6918 offers the next upside objective along with neighbouring resistance at 0.6950.
Structures of Interest:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664, along with monthly trendline resistance, and daily resistance at 0.6931, could have H1 candles run stops above 0.69 today and test H1 supply at 0.6932/0.6918 for moves back to at least 0.6850.
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