Thoughts on the AUD/USD today...
H4 action, as you can see, appears to be chiseling out a consolidation between April’s opening level at 0.7632 and the H4 support area coming in at 0.7571-0.7557. With no top-tier Aussie data on the docket today, the pair could potentially remain within this range into the week’s end. Technically speaking, however, we could eventually see the commodity currency turn lower.
Our reasoning lies within the higher-timeframe structure. On the weekly timeframe, the unit recently pierced above supply coming in at 0.7610-0.7543, likely filling a huge amount of buy stops in the process. Looking down to the daily candles, nonetheless, price managed to hold below the 61.8% Fib resistance at 0.7588 taken from the high 0.7747 for a second consecutive day, despite chalking in yet another aggressive whipsaw wick that almost tagged the underside of supply seen at 0.7679-0.7640.
Our suggestions: Traders may have also noticed that directly below the daily Fib level sits a daily support area coming in at 0.7556-0.7523. Therefore, although the higher-timeframes indicate that the bears may still have a hand in this fight, downside potential could be limited. And so, even if H4 price closes below the current H4 support area, there is little space for price to run as the top edge of the said daily support zone sits just 1 pip below this area! Given that, we’ll remain flat today and look to reassess structure going into Monday’s open.
Data points to consider: US Housing data at 1.30pm, US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment at 3pm, FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 5.45pm GMT+1.
Our reasoning lies within the higher-timeframe structure. On the weekly timeframe, the unit recently pierced above supply coming in at 0.7610-0.7543, likely filling a huge amount of buy stops in the process. Looking down to the daily candles, nonetheless, price managed to hold below the 61.8% Fib resistance at 0.7588 taken from the high 0.7747 for a second consecutive day, despite chalking in yet another aggressive whipsaw wick that almost tagged the underside of supply seen at 0.7679-0.7640.
Our suggestions: Traders may have also noticed that directly below the daily Fib level sits a daily support area coming in at 0.7556-0.7523. Therefore, although the higher-timeframes indicate that the bears may still have a hand in this fight, downside potential could be limited. And so, even if H4 price closes below the current H4 support area, there is little space for price to run as the top edge of the said daily support zone sits just 1 pip below this area! Given that, we’ll remain flat today and look to reassess structure going into Monday’s open.
Data points to consider: US Housing data at 1.30pm, US Prelim UoM consumer sentiment at 3pm, FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 5.45pm GMT+1.
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