I wanted to do this as a separate post so that I could use a real live example of something that often happens in the markets and traps many traders who get over-anxious and have happy trigger fingers.
In my last post on this pair (see Related Ideas: "AUDUSD: Watching For The Sell Signal"), I said that I am NOT YET in on the sell on this pair though I am also anxiously awaiting it. Some of you might be wondering what I am waiting for? Why have I not yet gone SHORT on this pair?
I've said it before and many times and I even did a post on it (see Related Ideas: "USDCAD: Why you SHOULD NOT BUY now! A Lesson On Trade Entry.") using another pair as an example. But seeing as there weren't that many LIKES on that post, I'm guessing many of you probably poo-pooed it as non-sense. Well, if you go back and look at that post and then look at what happened in USDCAD since then, you'll see what I meant.
Let me first say that for some of you, what I am about to say doesn't matter because maybe your trading plan and risk tolerance are such that you don't need to worry about "getting in too soon". But for many of you, it might matter. Let me go back a few days about 6 days ago when prices were still in what we now know was a powerful move up. I posted this post:
I had posted that because at that time, I had many PM's and comments asking me if it was the right time to go SHORT. I was wondering why so many people wanted to sell at the time? I even saw many posts that were also calling for a SHORT. Ok, so now zooming to the present time. We again have a situation where there are even MORE posts calling for a SHORT. But this time, I'm also one of them. BUT I have not SHORTED this pair just yet.
Here's what many trader's do not recognize when they "jump the gun": there isn't any bearish PA yet! why is it important to wait for PA to signal a trade when almost ALL the other indicators are SCREAMING to SELL? Because PA is the ultimate indicator, IMHO. Here's what could happen....
As of the time of this post, there is another 2 hours to go for this current 4 hour bar to close. On the 4HR chart below, there is no divergence yet but the RSI is way overbought. But in the 1Hr chart in the MAIN chart above, you see divergence and you see a pinbar. Oh! It's so exciting to see a pinbar! Let's ALL SELL!!! Whoopeee! Not so fast, my friend. First, let me say that I don't trade off pinbars as my personal opinion is that they are FOOL'S GOLD! This is a novice mistake that when a pinbar appears, novice trader's seem to automatically hit that trade button. The seasoned trader's recognize that pinbar ass a trap! And though you see one clearly on the 1HR chart, there is none on the 4HR chart.
Now back to that "divergence" thing I mentioned. There is something I like to call "trickle up" divergence. What is that you ask? Probably never heard of it, right? Briefly, it is simply that when you see divergence on a lower TF and not on the next higher TF, there is a good chance that prices will continue to go up yet again before dropping (in the case of overbought scenario) thus causing a divergence to also occur in that next higher TF. I've tried to illustrate this here in this 4HR chart.... This is NOT a rule but is a generalization as it is not always the case. So why is this important and why am I bringing it up now? Because this is a distinct possibility in this pair and I bring it up to also illustrate the importance of being patient and waiting for PA to signal a sell or else you just might get trapped!
CONTINUED IN COMMENTS SECTION BELOW.....
Komen
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Something I forgot to make clear is that it doesn't NECESSARILY need to do what I've shown in the MAIN chart to be a good PA. It could just go down now, bounce back up to RETEST the recent high point and IF FAIL to break through that high, then that is also bearish PA and THEN would be a good sell.
In terms of trader action, what is happening is this. In cases where there is a overwhelming case for a sell (the "crowd" mentality), many times, prices will NOT sell off but instead actually jump up once again. Many of you call this "stop hunting" action. In this case, the "institutional" traders KNOW that the "crowd" wants to sell and the ones that have sold already have placed their stops somewhere just above that pinbar. So guess what happens? Prices go up and take out those stops and the "institutional" traders pocket that money! The weak novice traders are left wondering what happened. This happens time and time again! More often than not!
So now here's where PA is so important. To avoid being "victimized", wait for the PA to confirm that a sell is happening. Just as in that post I did on the USDCAD saying to wait for PA action to tell when to buy, I am waiting on PA to tell me when to sell to avoid being "victimized" here.
In the main chart above, I show what MIGHT happen with the prices "shooting" higher and then coming back down. And I also show you what I want to see in terms of bearish PA in order for me to go SHORT and do it safely lessening the chances of being "viictimized". Some of you might ask, "well, if I were to sell wher you have the "SELL" point off that bearish PA, that's about the same point as selling off that pinbar!". Well, yes. But if you think that, you are missing the point. If you don't wait for that PA confirmation, what if prices KEEP heading higher? What if goes MUCH higher before it ever comes down? Without the PA confirmation, you could just get taken for a ride! Don't even bother saying that IT MUST COME DOWN! No, sir! It MUST do nothing of the sort! The market will do what the market will do REGARDLESS of what any indicator tells you! I've seen it happen so many times!
So take my words of caution for what it's worth. It took me a lot of LONG HARD SUFFERING years to learn this lesson!
maverick23
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great lesson your are right with this. I know lot of peaple hu short this pait before ant lost they stops. ans some af the peaple trade lot af years.
DiegoCarbajal
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Wow this is some crazy lesson
Long USD/CAD
Thank you very much
cxocapital
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This is a powerful lesson, as many including myself tend to be inpatient when harmonic patterns complete and want to get in the move as early as possible. Even though there is structure above and near the completion of the pattern you are right that many times the stop hunters or institutional traders push PA up an eliminate amateur traders. Its all about your trading style because if your only an advanced pattern trader then once D leg is complete then you are looking to get in, with the fact that structure is around an all rules meet your trading plan. This is can go either way obviously but I always insist on waiting for a reversal signal rather than jumping right in, the problem is for some traders that don't have the time to sit an wait there best bet is to place a limit order an hope for the best. I agree that a retest of the recent high then a reversal back down "could" be a good opportunity to go short. Thanks for sharing.
cmc
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Congratulations, you are excellent in describing and I can confirm everything you said from personal experience. In addition I would like to say that a trend rarely can be caught from the reverse point to the end. Thank you for investing time to teach others!
Darenth
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Agree, the reason is often excessive development (crazy rising or falling).
So now here's where PA is so important. To avoid being "victimized", wait for the PA to confirm that a sell is happening. Just as in that post I did on the USDCAD saying to wait for PA action to tell when to buy, I am waiting on PA to tell me when to sell to avoid being "victimized" here.
In the main chart above, I show what MIGHT happen with the prices "shooting" higher and then coming back down. And I also show you what I want to see in terms of bearish PA in order for me to go SHORT and do it safely lessening the chances of being "viictimized". Some of you might ask, "well, if I were to sell wher you have the "SELL" point off that bearish PA, that's about the same point as selling off that pinbar!". Well, yes. But if you think that, you are missing the point. If you don't wait for that PA confirmation, what if prices KEEP heading higher? What if goes MUCH higher before it ever comes down? Without the PA confirmation, you could just get taken for a ride! Don't even bother saying that IT MUST COME DOWN! No, sir! It MUST do nothing of the sort! The market will do what the market will do REGARDLESS of what any indicator tells you! I've seen it happen so many times!
So take my words of caution for what it's worth. It took me a lot of LONG HARD SUFFERING years to learn this lesson!