Banknifty Prediction for tomorrow (Monday) 17 Jun

14 Jun

As we discussed in the morning, BANKNIFTY ended up sideways.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is indecisive, as neither bulls nor bears are able to move the market in a direction. The market is taking support at 50 EMA(15 min TF). If it breaks to the downside, we might get a good bearish fall til 200 EMA.
Support levels: 49929, 49704, and 200-EMA
resistance levels: 50086 and 50213

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.94, which has increased from 0.74, shows a Bullish sign in the market. 50000 is working as max-pain. On the Lower side, there is significantly more PE writing than CE writing at higher levels, as can be seen in the attached image.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1: Sideways in range 49229 - 50086.
Case 2: Bearish if it breaks 49229 to the downside.

Reason:

1. RSI 46-60 shows a sideways structure.
   
2. Price < EMA(13) but greater than EMA(200), which indicates the market can correct itself till 200 EMA.
   
3. PCR = 0.94, which has increased from 0.74, shows a mild bullish sign in the market.
   
4. Price ~= VWAP shows an indecisive market structure.
   

Verdict: Indecisive
Case 1: Sideways in range 49929 - 50086.
Case 2: Bearish if it breaks 49929 to the downside.

Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 49900 PE & 50100 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options)
Case 2: Exit 49900 PE if it breaks to the downside.