PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 19 APR 2023

BANKNIFTY had a narrow range based trade today with a minor negative bias. Yesterday's swing low was breached by 13.40, but it does not pose a major scare yet!

The pattern may look bearish on the 5mts TF, but it actually isnt. Banknifty is comparatively outperforming the Nifty50 and NiftyIT index for the last 3 days.

BANKNIFTY did not have enough momentum to take out the swing high or breach the 42576 levels. This along with the weak sentiment in Nifty50 would have prompted the bulls to take a small break today. There was no violent price moves or support/resistance breaks - this again ensured that the option prices remain low on the penultimate day of weekly expiry.

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The unusual low options premium in bank nifty options are nudging traders like me to switch back to Nifty50 options. I am hoping that this decoupling of banknifty with nifty50 may not last long and the volatility will normalize in the days ahead.

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The 15mts chart has not turned bearish yet. What we see could just be a consolidation. If banknifty is planning to reverse direction at this level - the the first support of 41624 has to be taken out in the next 2 days. Only if the support is taken out quickly, the momentum will favor the dip.

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1hr chart is still looking strong, the 2 prominent gap-ups standing out boldly.

It might be interesting to watch out how the global markets react to the EURO, UK CPI data today. If there are more rate hikes in pipeline - then we may have a weak global sentiment again!