PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 DEC 2022
Remember yesterday's discussion around the 43255 support region, thats exactly where bank nifty opened today - 43261.
Had a real eventful expiry today, with almost a 500+ pts fall from 14.20 to close. Yesterday we discussed about a roof…banknifty.medium.com
The 1st candle took support and closed the gap, the 2nd and 4th candle also closed in green taking bank nifty to green. US market - SPX ended yesterday with cuts of 2.49%, so it was quite sure bank nifty will not be able to sustain in green that long.
The first leg of downfall came from 09.35 to 10.50 where BN lost 1.17% approx 509pts. I personally felt we will fall further, atleast another 250 to 300pts. But here is where our market resilience came into being.
BN traded higher from 12.05 to 12.50 to make a retracement high of 43443 - this is 62% retracement of the HOD 43598. From this level BN traded lower ie from 12.55 to 14.00 - but the inability to break the support decisively is strongly noted.
There was one green candle at 14.05 that seemed like is breaking the bearish pattern - but it resulted in further shorting and BN came to 43103 by 14.55. Also note that BN did not make a lower low after the morning fall - which needs to be taken in positively.
Also the final fall is only 0.64% comparing to what the US markets fell yesterday, Asian markets today and how the European markets are falling now.
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Of the bank nifty components:
HDFC bk was continuing yesterday's chart pattern till 10.55 after which it reversed direction and closed the day with gains
ICICI bank helped bank nifty go green in the opening 20mts, but from there it had a flattish pattern with some minor downward slope. 13.35 it fell underwater but the last 30mts there was some recovery.
SBI was perfectly continuing yesterday's chart, made a pause at 10.25 and then the 2nd leg of fall at 12.55 to close.
AXIS also helped BN with the opening minute gains when there was a big jump in prices. But this was quickly given up - hit an intraday low at 11.55 and then recovered from there & ended the day flattish
Kotak was also following yesterday's price action. There was an attempt to go above water at 12.35 but it was sold into. Final closing was in red.
Indus Ind also was continuing the chat pattern from yesterday.
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SPX opened yesterday right at the support level and then broke it and traded lower. There was no attempt to fill the gap or even break the resistance.
4 hourly candles in red showing strong pessimism, then a green doji and then a green recovery candle at 14.30. The closing candle was also in red.
The final close of the day was in midway from the nearest support - 3813 and nearest resistance 3945
If the sentiment stays as it is - we may be able to see SPX breaking down from this range.
Even though SPX has fallen so much in percentage terms, our indices bank nifty and nifty50 is yet to react. NiftyIT is continuing to take the beating meanwhile. Also our VIX is still in 14 range comparing to 24 levels in US.
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We discussed about the 15mts and 1hr TF yesterday. The support level of 43255 has to be broken decisively to go short. The chart pattern below may show a close below that level - but its again too early because bank nifty wasnt as bearish as shown on chart.
1D vs 1W TF not showing any bearish trend yet.
Lets zoom in the 1D TF - on 14th i tried mentioning about an evening star pattern forming
Its become business as usual for bank nifty to take out the all time highs - new ATH is now 44151. Today bank nifty…banknifty.medium.com
Well, it makes sense now as the candle of 15th was red and today's was a doji. Still too early but we can start wearing the bearish socks now !!!
Had a real eventful expiry today, with almost a 500+ pts fall from 14.20 to close. Yesterday we discussed about a roof…banknifty.medium.com
The 1st candle took support and closed the gap, the 2nd and 4th candle also closed in green taking bank nifty to green. US market - SPX ended yesterday with cuts of 2.49%, so it was quite sure bank nifty will not be able to sustain in green that long.
The first leg of downfall came from 09.35 to 10.50 where BN lost 1.17% approx 509pts. I personally felt we will fall further, atleast another 250 to 300pts. But here is where our market resilience came into being.
BN traded higher from 12.05 to 12.50 to make a retracement high of 43443 - this is 62% retracement of the HOD 43598. From this level BN traded lower ie from 12.55 to 14.00 - but the inability to break the support decisively is strongly noted.
There was one green candle at 14.05 that seemed like is breaking the bearish pattern - but it resulted in further shorting and BN came to 43103 by 14.55. Also note that BN did not make a lower low after the morning fall - which needs to be taken in positively.
Also the final fall is only 0.64% comparing to what the US markets fell yesterday, Asian markets today and how the European markets are falling now.
---
Of the bank nifty components:
HDFC bk was continuing yesterday's chart pattern till 10.55 after which it reversed direction and closed the day with gains
ICICI bank helped bank nifty go green in the opening 20mts, but from there it had a flattish pattern with some minor downward slope. 13.35 it fell underwater but the last 30mts there was some recovery.
SBI was perfectly continuing yesterday's chart, made a pause at 10.25 and then the 2nd leg of fall at 12.55 to close.
AXIS also helped BN with the opening minute gains when there was a big jump in prices. But this was quickly given up - hit an intraday low at 11.55 and then recovered from there & ended the day flattish
Kotak was also following yesterday's price action. There was an attempt to go above water at 12.35 but it was sold into. Final closing was in red.
Indus Ind also was continuing the chat pattern from yesterday.
---
SPX opened yesterday right at the support level and then broke it and traded lower. There was no attempt to fill the gap or even break the resistance.
4 hourly candles in red showing strong pessimism, then a green doji and then a green recovery candle at 14.30. The closing candle was also in red.
The final close of the day was in midway from the nearest support - 3813 and nearest resistance 3945
If the sentiment stays as it is - we may be able to see SPX breaking down from this range.
Even though SPX has fallen so much in percentage terms, our indices bank nifty and nifty50 is yet to react. NiftyIT is continuing to take the beating meanwhile. Also our VIX is still in 14 range comparing to 24 levels in US.
---
We discussed about the 15mts and 1hr TF yesterday. The support level of 43255 has to be broken decisively to go short. The chart pattern below may show a close below that level - but its again too early because bank nifty wasnt as bearish as shown on chart.
1D vs 1W TF not showing any bearish trend yet.
Lets zoom in the 1D TF - on 14th i tried mentioning about an evening star pattern forming
Its become business as usual for bank nifty to take out the all time highs - new ATH is now 44151. Today bank nifty…banknifty.medium.com
Well, it makes sense now as the candle of 15th was red and today's was a doji. Still too early but we can start wearing the bearish socks now !!!
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