Mapping Out a Probable Basing Structure for Continuation

kelmarin

I’m tracking price as it retraces into the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone, where I expect a potential base to form. With declining volume confirming the pullback is losing momentum, I’ll look for a clear basing pattern or double-bottom on lower timeframes before entering long. If confirmed, the plan is to position for a continuation move back toward previous highs.

semalam

Dagangan aktif

Update:
Price has responded to the 0.5–0.618 retracement zone as anticipated, showing initial signs of support and a short-term bounce from this area. RSI has recovered from oversold back to neutral, but volume remains subdued, suggesting the market is still in the process of forming a base.

At this stage, I’m monitoring for confirmation of accumulation- specifically, a higher low or a period of consolidation above $6.27. A sustained move and close above $7.00, ideally supported by an uptick in volume, would provide confirmation for a potential continuation toward $7.50 and above.

Downside invalidation is set below $5.69; a decisive break of this level would negate the setup and prompt a reassessment.

No position until structure confirms. Remaining patient and focused on price development within the identified zone.

8 jam lalu

Nota

Midday Update:

Price has moved above the $7.00 level, testing short-term resistance at the 0.382 retracement. While there’s been a constructive bounce from the identified continuation re-entry zone, overall volume remains muted and there’s no clear evidence of strong initiative buying at these levels. RSI sits in neutral territory, reflecting a lack of momentum extremes.

Broader market sentiment, as observed in (NQ), is currently neutral to cautious. Despite early strength, buyers have not pressed session highs, and options activity suggests a defensive tone rather than directional conviction. This backdrop could limit near-term upside follow-through unless there is a clear shift in market participation.

Given these conditions, I remain focused on confirmation of a sustained base above $7.00 and would prefer to see broader market strength or a decisive uptick in volume before increasing exposure. Failure to hold above $6.85 or a return to the lower support zone would indicate that further consolidation is needed.

No change to the plan: maintaining a patient, process-driven approach and allowing price action- within both the stock and the broader market to dictate timing for any new positions.

4 jam lalu

Nota

End of RTH Update:

Price held above the $7.00 level throughout the session, settling near $7.10 and maintaining above the 0.382 retracement ($6.85). The overall tone was constructive: there was no significant supply pressure, and RSI drifted up to 56 on the hourly, but volume remained muted, consistent with a market still in the process of base formation.

From a broader perspective, market sentiment remains neutral to cautious mirrored in Nasdaq futures, where intraday moves failed to gain strong directional follow through. This subdued backdrop is further reflected in the BBAI options chain: positioning is concentrated in at-the-money and slightly out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts, but there is no evidence of aggressive speculation or one-sided conviction. Put activity is marginally elevated, likely reflecting hedging rather than outright bearish bets, while call buyers are not reaching for higher strikes.

Taken together, the current options flow is consistent with the ongoing price consolidation and a lack of commitment from either side. Upside confirmation would require not just price holding above $7.10 with a volume expansion, but also a visible shift in options activity toward higher call strikes- particularly at or above $7.50. Conversely, a rotation of open interest and volume into lower strike puts, or a breakdown below $6.85 with expanding volume, would signal further base building or downside risk.

In summary:
The setup remains unchanged. The market is seeking resolution, with neither buyers nor sellers exerting control. I remain patient, monitoring for clear evidence of accumulation- both in the underlying price action and in options flow before considering additional exposure. Downside invalidation remains below $6.27.