There are eery similarities to the 2018 bear market with BTC having gone quiet for 129 days, since this year's low on the 16th June.
In 2018, we had a period of 143 days from the local low on the 24th June, to the capitulation triggered on the 14th Nov. A further move down of -46% was the result.
However, history rhymes but doesn't usually repeat. So could we in fact be in the accumulation phase, similar to 2018 directly after the capitulation?
Have a look at the 108 day period from the 2018 low on 15th Dec to the breakout on the 2nd Apr 2019, where there was a period of relative inactivity, just like the one we're going through now.
When we look purely at like for like similarities, the capitulation scenario seems more likely. But that seems all too easy to anticipate. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finding potential macro lows in the last two weeks, perhaps we are coming to the end of the accumulation phase, and about to make a big move up?
Either way, I'm going to be ready for both scenarios!
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