Bitcoin Liquid IndexTelah dikemas kini BTC correlation with DXY and implications for this bullmarket
So we always ponder how high BTC will go and how the rally might look.
We've established that a top in the range of about 200k is quite likely, based on the longterm historical growth trend.
Now as some have already pointed out before, Bitcoin has a strong longterm correlation to the US dollar.
We can see that with the exception of the 2013 rally (this was due to Mt.Gox and China entering Bitcoin), Bitcoin's growth and the dollar are very anti-correlated.
When Dollar grows, Bitcoin has bearmarkets.
When Dollar dumps, Bitcoin has rallies.
That would also explain why this time, bitcoin is so strangely early, and why this rally is starting earlier than in 2017.
This is because the Dollar dumped already earlier this time.
So this means, that depending on what DXY does now, this could have big implications for Bitcoin.
We can see that the DXY did a very long falling wedge structure, which is normally a bullish structure. We can already see that this structure is being broken to the upside.
Should DXY continue pumping for weeks or months now, I would be strongly inclined to believe that we will see a double rally like back in 2013. The second rally will happen
once DXY starts dumping again.
Should however DXY start dumping now, and this was just a fake breakout of the falling wedge, we can assume that we will see a 2017 fractal repeat, which would bring in the top
already in about 6 weeks.
It will be interesting to see, and it will strongly depend on the good old dollar.
We've established that a top in the range of about 200k is quite likely, based on the longterm historical growth trend.
Now as some have already pointed out before, Bitcoin has a strong longterm correlation to the US dollar.
We can see that with the exception of the 2013 rally (this was due to Mt.Gox and China entering Bitcoin), Bitcoin's growth and the dollar are very anti-correlated.
When Dollar grows, Bitcoin has bearmarkets.
When Dollar dumps, Bitcoin has rallies.
That would also explain why this time, bitcoin is so strangely early, and why this rally is starting earlier than in 2017.
This is because the Dollar dumped already earlier this time.
So this means, that depending on what DXY does now, this could have big implications for Bitcoin.
We can see that the DXY did a very long falling wedge structure, which is normally a bullish structure. We can already see that this structure is being broken to the upside.
Should DXY continue pumping for weeks or months now, I would be strongly inclined to believe that we will see a double rally like back in 2013. The second rally will happen
once DXY starts dumping again.
Should however DXY start dumping now, and this was just a fake breakout of the falling wedge, we can assume that we will see a 2017 fractal repeat, which would bring in the top
already in about 6 weeks.
It will be interesting to see, and it will strongly depend on the good old dollar.
Nota
DXY continues to pump, and thus BTCUSD sees selling pressure.
The chances for a 2013 are increasing.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.