Epochal Price Discovery in Bitcoin Post-Halvening
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We are currently about to enter the second part of the third halvening epoch. Each epoch has been characterized by broadly similar price movement. The pattern is previous ATH → halvening → next ATH . The overall epochs are indicated on the chart with the blue date ranges. The ATH → halvening is indicated by the red date range. Halvening → next ATH is indicated on the chart with the green date ranges.
The first epoch was 129 weeks from ATH to ATH . The period of time from ATH to halvening was 77 weeks. From halvening to next ATH was 52 weeks.
The second epoch was 136 weeks from ATH to the next ATH. ATH to halvening was 136 weeks. Halvening to next ATH was 75 weeks.
We are about to enter the post-halvening period of the third epoch. I am estimating the total epoch at about 202 weeks. From ATH to halvening will have been 126 weeks. From halvening to next ATH will be ~76 weeks.
The red date ranges ( ATH → halvening) define a price range from the top of the previous ATH and the bottom of the price reached before halvening. The lower bound of the green date ranges (halvening → next ATH ) is set by the lowest price reached in that period of time. In epoch 1 and 2, the *lowest price* reached in the green date range has been greater than the logarithmic midpoint of the prior red date range. In other words, after the first halvening, the price never went below $8.00 (it actually never went below $12.00). After the second halvening, the price never went below $430 (it actually never went below $480).
The first epoch was 129 weeks from ATH to ATH . The period of time from ATH to halvening was 77 weeks. From halvening to next ATH was 52 weeks.
The second epoch was 136 weeks from ATH to the next ATH. ATH to halvening was 136 weeks. Halvening to next ATH was 75 weeks.
We are about to enter the post-halvening period of the third epoch. I am estimating the total epoch at about 202 weeks. From ATH to halvening will have been 126 weeks. From halvening to next ATH will be ~76 weeks.
The red date ranges ( ATH → halvening) define a price range from the top of the previous ATH and the bottom of the price reached before halvening. The lower bound of the green date ranges (halvening → next ATH ) is set by the lowest price reached in that period of time. In epoch 1 and 2, the *lowest price* reached in the green date range has been greater than the logarithmic midpoint of the prior red date range. In other words, after the first halvening, the price never went below $8.00 (it actually never went below $12.00). After the second halvening, the price never went below $430 (it actually never went below $480).
Nota
So far so good.Nota
We are in the sweet spot now.Look for another year of parabolic price increase from here.
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