BTC vs Gold at a Critical Support โ€“ Bounce or Breakdown?

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๐Ÿ“Š Weekly Chart Analysis โ€“ BLX/GOLD (Bitcoin to Gold Ratio)

๐Ÿ“‰ Current Price: 25.90
Price is sitting at a key support zone, aligned with the ascending trendline (green).
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (26.47) from the full impulse move (8.35 โ†’ 37.67) is being tested.
The 200-week MA is also nearby, adding strength to this support area.

๐Ÿ” Indicators:
MACD (Weekly):
Still bearish, with a confirmed downward crossover.
No visible bullish divergences yet โ€” bearish sentiment persists.

RSI:
Hovering near 40 โ€” not oversold but approaching the zone.
Room for further downside, but also potential for a bounce from oversold conditions.

Stochastic RSI & Momentum:
Stoch RSI is bottomed out, suggesting a possible upside reversal.
Volume is declining on the sell-off โ€” a possible sign of seller exhaustion.

๐Ÿง  Market Structure:
The overall pattern resembles a rising wedge, potentially broken to the downside.

However, price is now retesting the bottom of a long-term parallel channel โ€” a historically favorable zone for long entries.

๐Ÿงญ Possible Scenarios:

๐Ÿ“ˆ Reversal & Bounce Holding 25โ€“26 support, Stoch RSI reversal Medium-High
๐Ÿ“‰ Break to 20โ€“23 Failure to hold Fibonacci & trendline Medium
โš ๏ธ Sharp Drop to 15โ€“20 Only if BTC crashes or gold rallies hard Low

๐ŸŸข Summary:
Price is at a critical confluence zone: Fibonacci, horizontal support, trendline, and oscillators all align here. A bounce is likely unless this level is decisively broken. If it holds, this may be a strong mid-term long entry signal.

Penafian

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