Bitcoin breakout

25 Jul 2020

Technicals:
* bottom of channel reached
* pendant break
* obv volume breakout
* rsi breakout

Fundamentals:
* halving
* not a centralized premined scam
* #1 by development (github) and peak use (bitcoin visuals block size)

26 Jul 2020

Nota

ascending triangle to break 10k after pendant breakout

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/z/zKiINPIu.png

27 Jul 2020

Nota

I forget how to post charts for updates. Hmm. Maybe need the tv link.
Longest time frame view.

7 Ogo 2020

Nota

last time obv was this high, we were in 14000 range



based on past price action activity, the major strongly price-rejecting low probability regions are 10500, 12460 and 15600 that are particularly difficult to break that surround high probability regions for profit taking in the middle ~13600 and ~16700. best areas for single profit taking level are in easy to reach high probability areas, best areas for a range of profit taking are the range from peak easy to hard level above.

high probability buy level for corrections would be ~9500 & ~11100 after move up, and buy ranges from easy to hard levels directly below.

inverted H&S we broke with H (high volume) measured move is around ~15600. August 2 backtested the breakout level already on small daily timescale

13 Ogo 2020

Nota

bulldiv on 6h (visible on daily too)
perfect bounce off rsi trend
higher lows
flag formation
broke inverted H&S (or ascending triangle before) on volume and backtested
looks short term bullish, revisit this level after that likely, previous plan still holds

16 Ogo 2020

Nota

12hr rsi confirming bulldiv by crossing the slope

17 Ogo 2020

Nota

possible this move will form bear div and then do quick wick down as low as yearly pivot, which I'm guessing will get bought up

something like this in the past:


of course that's only a possibility for where to place bids, no certainties as always

hard to imagine it going to ath directly, so not trading that at the moment

20 Ogo 2020

Nota

pullbacks hurt performance of breakouts but my bias is still on bullish side until there's lower lows printed which will likely bull div too

small beardivs and bulldivs cancel each other out so far. wedge form can be continuation or reversal, about even. would be strange for downside until at least hitting next major resistance, prices don't tend to hug 12k for example if that's a strong resistance. it will likely go down if not now then after downward rejection. obv steadily growing & setting highs despite setback.

buy regions for wicks down to yearly pivot (for high panic scenario) with bids placed already. short term pos with mental stops below previous lows. long term pos with mental stops below yearly pivots.

20 Ogo 2020

Nota

woops. confused orange lines. didn't meant to draw to 17k but 14k one

28 Ogo 2020

Nota

bit of uncertainty region with showing bearish movements on short term but still bullish long

higher lows mean there's still something like a triangle in play that tend to turn into channels like drawn in red

buy regions highlighted with orange boxes

sell region in red

I'm adding 1/20th of position every red day

7 Sep 2020

Nota

still adding every red day (no doji)

looks like bear market backtest is a possibility as consolidation after a move suggests consolidation bit more often than not

7.5k would be the most bearish scenario but I have hard time believing if that even happens it would be more than a wick at this point

~30% retraces common for btc 0.7*12000 ~ 8400

5 Nov 2020

Nota

took longer than expected to recover and triangle was bigger but it worked out in the end, after I saw the amount of buyers at 10k grew more confident

adding every red day worked well, now just sitting in position with asks placed up to 19k, bids ~14-12k, suspect ~17k local top somewhere in future (marked previously) with lots of volatility after that. we also broke another inverse head and shoulders upward with nasty bullish measured moves (14k would be the backtest for it so that's why larger bids around there )

12 Nov 2020

Nota

updated above charts with horizontal rays for where my bids are located at and where my asks are, never all in or all out

20 Nov 2020

Nota

took significant profit around original target already



rsi reaching record highs so i don't feel comfortable adding here but not completely out of the long either on lev and keeping spot long open on year scale. bids already placed 12k-15k region

16 Apr 2021

Nota

wild ride so far

added here for what i think will be a major impulse and possibly last major impulse from breaking this flat top triangle on volume and backtesting. marked are just my short range positions that are in addition to larger TF positions.

18 Apr 2021

Nota

exited as shown and right after it dropped far below. was good choice of an exit I suppose, could've gone either way imo

19 Apr 2021

Nota

another test down (ideally wick) possible to add/enter into position for me

i see this as a break up of the original channel, so until we break back down i consider it bullish

19 Apr 2021

Nota

in position and bullish above green line, staying out for while below

green line coincides with the thin black channel top above

since green line seems to be respected for many years, top of purple channel @ ~200k is not out of the question, and much harder to place top of curve (3 points at 3 tops to fit with to right line extended to infinity) around 80k

we never had a top this flat and flatness is a sign of weakness for a level hence i think & am trading it breaking short term expecting a blow of candle to 80k

4 Mei 2021

Nota

patterns I'm using for confirmation of breakdown. not there yet.

massive rsi bull div on weekly, size of sell off volumes declining, obv holding high

channel and overlapping fork still in tact, no strong rejection from top suggesting it's weak

14 Mei 2021

Nota

if this bounce holds could see the last move and that's the trade

otherwise I'm usdt/spot only

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/o/o50yZIIC.png

17 Jul 2021

Nota

bear fork broken, if wyckoff distribution is done, this would be the recovery path, breakdown would be huge H&S for deep buying opportunities otherwise

easy short stop