BTC cycle measurements for BREAK OUT and ATH

BREAK OUT from previous cycle’s ATH price

One of the cycle events that I feel is worth measuring is the event of breaking the previous cycle ATH and staying (well) above it. And the way that I measured this in the past I overlooked an important thing. I measured only when the dates the price first hit the previous ATH, and not to the later dates of when the price actually held above it, never to see it again. I feel like measuring from halvings makes most sense, but interestingly enough measuring from previous ATL and ATH, they all overlap.



With measuring this way, and giving weight to the idea of the cycles, I am now keeping an open mind that this event might happen between later Nov to late Jan 2025. (Thinking it won't happen until March seems unlikely to me, but who knows). In 2020, it was on Dec 13th, which is right in the middle of the measurements from past halvings.


Cycle ATH Time Frame

Same here, I think Halving to ATH seems like the best to measure, but I also measured ATL to ATH, and ATH to ATH. Once btc finally breaks and stays above 69k then we can also map out that for another time frame to ATH.

Call it last cycle PTSD, but I’m not as interested in digging into the price points or percentage gains. But as an attempt, I did measure ATH to ATH percentage gains. I don’t see any simple pattern here. C3 (2021 top) does seem like a heavy under-performing outlier. With some simple theories I came to very round numbers of 150k on the lower end, 250k being hopeful, and 280k on the higher end.



I label C3 as “cycle 3” which I’m referring to the 2020 cycle. C2 is the 2016 cycle and C1, 2012. Cycle One is probably 2008 to some people, I apologize for confusion.