Been Neutral To Bearish on BNB For a While

11 Nov 2018

BNBBTC has an amazing chart. It has been overall one of the best performing coins in the bear market, as it has actually increased in BTC value. However, I expect its BTC value to remain stagnant or go down a bit, since it hasn't really had a chance to correct much since increasing exponentially from last year. This doesn't mean it HAS to correct further, but I think it will at least touch the 14000-14100 support before going upwards. I think the upside for this coin in terms of BTC value may be limited for the time being. I did not think it would have a sustained coin burn pump in October, and I was right.

If BNB were to correct like most other coins, we can expect that it will go down to the next support level below 14000 (around 8100-8700), or even further to reach the orange uptrend line below at 5000. This scenario can happen if BTC increases OR decreases, as I believe people were using BNB to accumulate large amounts of BTC during the bear market, given the fact that its top coincides with BTC's June bottom.

Just my two cents on this coin. I think it's a great long term hold. Just might have to wait to buy. We have yet to see a convincing wave 2 of this coin's market cycle. I don't usually use elliott waves unless they're super obvious, and I think BNB just experienced an enormous wave 1. We are currently looking for the end of wave 2 before beginning another explosive wave 3.

This is not financial advice, and I am not a professional financial advisor. This is my idea on BNB and what I think could happen, given what I'm seeing.

-Victor Cobra

13 Nov 2018

Nota

Got down to the 14400 area. Thought it could drop a bit more, but support is pretty strong for this coin. Still don't see it as a great buying opportunity though. Will update when things get more interesting with this coin.

14 Nov 2018

Nota

Continuing to drop as originally expected. If 14000 doesn't hold, it's a ways down to the next support around 8100. I think we could see the $4-5 area soon again, which has historically been a good buying zone for BNB.

16 Nov 2018

Nota

We've reached the first target of 14100 for the sell, right on my red X. If we fail to bounce here, we will head much lower. Remember, this can break down regardless of Bitcoin's movements, so be careful.

17 Nov 2018

Nota

We've broken through support. Looks like a lot of people are asleep on this coin, probably not expecting it to drop much, but oh boy, they may be in for a surprise. If we can't bounce back up now, there is no support until the 8000-10000 area.

18 Nov 2018

Nota

Nice short term reversal candle. However, the volume on this price increase is not convincing. BNB really needs to break back above previous support and aim past the 15000 area to avoid going lower.

20 Nov 2018

Nota

Buyers showing up in the 12000 area, but this does not mean that it can't drop down to the support levels mentioned above. It's not showing much strength yet in terms of follow through.

24 Nov 2018

Nota

Looking pretty bad for BNB. We've ventured down into that $5 zone I was talking about, but it just appears to be building more downside momentum. It only bounced off here once before anyway, and that was during the initial bubble pop. There is a huge amount of downside potential for this coin. If this current level breaks, the most immediate target is in the $3.30 area in blue. I've been calling a breakdown on BNB since September/October, when people were talking about the next "coin burn" pump. If $3.30 doesn't hold, obviously this thing can go to $1-2 easily. It was 8 cents in 2017, so still pretty bullish in that aspect. It's pretty new, so it just needs to form a logarithmic trend line.

28 Nov 2018

Nota

Still resting on the same support in USD value, but BNB is declining in BTC value a bit during this market rebound. This is in line with my view on this coin. My bearish perspective on BNB versus Bitcoin will change when there is a clear reversal signal. So far, it still looks weak.

3 Dis 2018

Nota

Looks like we've found support, both in the 12000 area and at $5. We'll probably retest 13500 soon. If we break that and get back above 14000, it's likely the bottom is in for BNB and I'll make a new chart. However, if we fail before then, we'll probably continue the downtrend.

3 Dis 2018

Nota

We could also fail here. Really not a buy signal for me until it has clearly bottomed.

4 Dis 2018

Nota

Since we've gotten above 13500 with volume, there's a chance the low has actually been set. BNB is one of the most bullish coins out there, as I've said, and bouncing in the $4-5 area is a good sign. Binance chain will be rolling out (so I've heard) sometime in the next couple of months, so people are probably buying in. However, there is a large amount of resistance overhead at 14000 and everything up to 16000. It'll be hard to break through that.

4 Dis 2018

Nota

Broke 14000 as well. The low has been set for now, and I will be abandoning this chart. Might post a new one soon. We're still far down in USD value from when I first posted this short idea, but we've rebounded in BTC value. This is still a resistance zone though, where we've stagnated before. Perhaps since the bear market has extended, BNB will regain its inverse correlation and move on to test ATH's soon.

6 Dis 2018

Nota

And just like that, most of the gains from the last couple of days are completely wiped out. Glad I didn't enter a position on BNB. My bearish stance still stands. The resistance at 17000 was too much. We got PERFECTLY rejected off my pink line. Now we're in danger of heading back below $5. This was a failed reversal. The 12000 zone didn't seem to offer many technical reasons for the bounce. Maybe this was artificially engineered by Binance to generate some safety net capital in case of a longer bear market.

6 Dis 2018

Nota

HOWEVER, if we can hold above 14000 and 13500, we have the potential for a double bottom. I don't necessarily see this happening with such a big rejection, but you have to prepared for all scenarios.