Big political and economic uncertantity in Europe after events like Brexit and the Italian referendum. There's a populist anti-establishment wave going on in Europe and that's really bad for the EU (Positive for Bitcoin though).
Italy might see the 5 star movement in office after Renzi's defeat. But more important, France is holding election next year and the far right candidate Marine Pen is at 40% today. Given the trend that's going on in Europe, there is a big possibility of a Pen victory.
- Banking Sector
We are seeing weak banks all around and a bank crisis in the near future is not out of the question. A little while ago we saw Deutsche Bank struggle, and though it's going better right now for the bank, the future may not.
Right now Dei Paschi (biggest Italian bank) is in the spotlight. They will likely need a bail-out. If not, and the bank collapses, it would drag others with it down the drain.
Goverments will keep doing what they can to rescue their banks from going under, but remember, one collaps could trigger the "rest". There may come a domino effect and boom we have a bank crisis on our hands.
Sitting in Bitcoin sounds pretty good in the case of these events, compared to fiat, right?
- Donald Trump
Big money is welcoming a Trump presidency with an open heart (well, for now atleast). We are seeing ATH's all around and a perspective on the US economy with Trump as president. But we dont' buy it, not for a single second.
Donald Trump is a terrible businessman. He may be good at making a profit when he takes advantage of the laws and screws everybody over and some may call that a good businessman, but those business tactics will be terrible for the US economy.
And though big money is welcoming him, we believe most are afraid and the ATH's we are seeing is just for the smart money to exit. Remember this?
Trump presidency is also for Bitcoin because Trump himself should have a positive view on the currency. You would atleast think so even though he has never expresses his opinion on the matter.
That's the big things, but overall there is a significant amount of positive fundamentals for Bitcoin. To give a few more:
- Bitcoin Is Legal says Russion Federal Tax Service
There has been big uncertantity surrounding Bitcoin in Russia. Now the goverment has finally taken a position and it's a positive one.
- India Rupee Restriction Gives Bitcoin a Boost.
India may be the next reason for a BTC pump. Narendra is taking the 500 & 1000 bills out of the economy and making people in India to flock towards Bitcoin . We are seeing huge premiums on India's exchanges.
- Bitcoin Demand Seen Rise as Chine Restricts Gold-Importation.
China is now trying even harder to keep the capital inside it's borders. Restricting the chinese from gold will drive more people to Bitcoin as an alternative. Mostly gone unoticed, but we see this as a huge signal.
- Why arent Bitcoin Buisnesses Talking Segwit?
Segwit is coming and that is a big technical advancement. Making room for a larger bitcoin economy so to speak.
That is not the case anymore and a lot of stuff has happened since my prediction.
Fortunately for me I am from the west and have never used Chinese exchanges, so I have seen a lot more growth then my chart would suggest. Chinese exchanges has halted withdrawals for a long time and are now way behind pricewise!
Today I am closing my BTC long because there is way to much uncertantity around Bitcoin. We have Bitfinex 100 USD over the rest because of banking issues, and China 200 USD behind. Bitcoin is still stuck with scaling problems and I see no solution in the short term.
Don't get me wrong, I am still highly bullish on BTC and there is popping up a lot of good news for the currency. I just don't see any upside before we have more clarification on the Bitfinex, Chinese Exchanges & Scaling issues that we are currently facing.
This trade has however been very succesful and for the short term I am retiring as a bull with a smile on my face.
Buy In - 750 USD
Sell Out - 1240 USD
Profit - 39.50%
And on the volume note.. The chinese exchanges are heavily manipulated. I don't really put much faith in those numbers. And USD exchanges had relatively low volume.
But if you look at the chart from BTCChina, aot OKCoin, then the increase in volume is impressive, reaching over 5m btc at one point. But upon closer inspection it looks like most of the volume was in the run up to 'my' breakout point and (a bit) less during and after.
Anyway, thanks for sharing and your response and I hope you're right as that means the target is higher ;-)