It's a good day to get wrecked in BTC

29 Jun 2020

Welcome to Fake Out City, population us. My expectation is that Bitcoin is going to spend the day trending upwards despite popular demand. I'm expecting that we will be testing at least the 9250 level and possibly as high as the 9350 level. We'll probably post a green candle for the day. In order to reach this conclusion I have to throw out a large number of bearish indicators that scream "BLOOD IN THE STREETS" and focus on price action. Will there be blood in the streets? Probably, it just probably won't happen today. Despite so many signs pointing to a break down to anywhere from 8600 to 3500, it's important to remember that the measured move on a break out from descending wedge is 16,000 - and we've been breaking out of that descending wedge all day, to such an extent that we've formed a compelling uptrend. It's most probable that we'll see bull traps at 9250 and 9500 if we reach those levels, but there's always a chance (in this case slim) that bitcoin will ignore the TA and leave us all in its dust by climbing to over 9700 by the end of tomorrow. While I do plan to short either late tonight or some time tomorrow, I may not. I do not plan to long, because I don't trust this short term uptrend in the face of the longer term downtrend we're in. My forecast is about a 70% chance of a green daily candle followed by a 75% chance of a red daily candle tomorrow, and I don't see price action hitting the high 8k region sooner than 12 hours from now no matter what the order books say. Local price action is spitting in the face of the long term trend, and I'm curious to see exactly how long it can last. As it stands, I see us staying in this current upwards channel for at least 8 hours of small gains angry bears. Keep in mind that while bitcoin is busy defying gravity, short orders are stacked up way higher than longs, and bitcoin doesn't care. It's just going up.

29 Jun 2020

Nota

To get way more specific, my intuition is telling me that we'll see a repeat of what's happened from that 16:00 candle on the 27th to the 10:00 on the 29th, perhaps on a shorter timescale. Perhaps not. I do think there will be a noticeable dump once this fractal rise plays out, but I do not think it will be substantial. The week as a whole looks a bit bearish. I wouldn't expect a substantial dump for at least 30-40 hours and possibly longer. The bulls are pulling some "This is Sparta" type crap at the line of scrimmage.

17 Jul 2020

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