BTCUSD: Bullish Momentum Can Lead Back To 20K.

5 Jan 2018

BTCUSD update: Bullish breakout and now attempting to retest the 16350 to 17876 resistance zone. The lower boundary of this zone is also the range high area as well. This is a good area to lock in profits upon any bearish reversals.

At the moment, this market is showing continued signs of bullish momentum. When I say watch for bearish reversals, that does not mean I am bearish, I am just open and flexible to what the market can show next at such levels. Since the triple bottom formation off the 11600 low, this market has been producing high lows and higher highs. There is nothing bearish about that type of structure and implies bullish momentum.

The current price area is very conflicting because the location implies a greater chance of selling, while price momentum shows no signs. So how do you navigate a situation like this? You go with the momentum until the market proves otherwise. To protect yourself and reduce risk, this area presents an opportunity to lock in profit, NOT get short (yet). Like I have explained in other reports, it is a best practice. Holding onto a smaller portion of your position allows you to participate if the market decides to break through the resistance zone and retest the 20K area.

Since this market has broken out of a triangle, there is mounting evidence on the bullish side, especially since the low of the triangle represents a broad higher low on the bigger picture. Everyone gets caught up in the head and shoulders because they cannot see beyond the chart. Head and shoulders patterns are good for smaller time frame trading like day trading or scalping, not
broad counter trend moves. The environment for this market is very bullish. Charts are a way to organize data and get a sense of temporary market intentions, not to base long term opinions on.

As far as swing trades go, IF the market retraces and offers a lower risk buying opportunity, the levels to watch are the 14465 (.382 of recent bullish swing) or the 13420 to 12660 area (.618 of recent bullish swing). Also 15000 is worth noting because it would be a retest of the triangle boundary and a old resistance/new support. Bullish reversals in these area present more attractive buying opportunities in terms of risk compared to where price is now. Especially the 12,500 area which is the range low, great place to take a swing trade or position trade upon confirmation.

In summary, anticipating which way the market is likely to move next is only one piece of the puzzle. Ultimately, the market leads and the best we can do is adjust or "listen". Right now this market is at a resistance which is an area to anticipate more selling than buying on the short term, BUT there are no significant signs and until there are, we can reduce some risk by locking in some profit or take no action until the price gives more of a reason. As long as the momentum does not change meaning price does not break any supports, or hardly retraces, then it is likely to continue higher. A push through the resistance zone can lead the way to a 20K retest, while any retest of support has a greater chance of holding as long as this market is generally strong. When you wait for a lower risk opportunity, like a bullish reversal off of a significant support, when situations like the one we have now come along, you have a lot of flexibility and favorable choices. This is much better than buying impulsively only to find yourself at the mercy of the market. Patience is strength, greed is weakness.

Comments and questions welcome.