EMA200 now acts as resistance
I should stress, this is not a trade I'm executing!
Now that I've said that, after a precipitous decline Bitcoin finally experienced a dead cat bounce of note. After all the technical damage done it seems unlikely it will suddenly rally hard from here and volumes on this bounce seem to support this.
As I said before, I'm not opening this trade but rather waiting for a bottom. If a rally is to be sustained at a bare minimum we would need to see some consolidation until the first rising (orange) trend line is met. From my perspective though, Bitcoin operates heavily on panic and at least on a four hour timeframe I don't think we've seen that yet. Perhaps it is amateur of me to discount China markets however purely from a USD standpoint the Bitfinex margin rate is ~3:1. Based on this those who opened margin trades at this recent top face liquidation below $800 and this supports the thesis this longer term (ie. 4H) bounce is short closing from higher opens. Time will tell if I'm right and if so we will either see flatlining (consolidation) or a final push down to a panic zone below $800 at which point all hell will break loose as margin calls start piling on each other.
Now that I've said that, after a precipitous decline Bitcoin finally experienced a dead cat bounce of note. After all the technical damage done it seems unlikely it will suddenly rally hard from here and volumes on this bounce seem to support this.
As I said before, I'm not opening this trade but rather waiting for a bottom. If a rally is to be sustained at a bare minimum we would need to see some consolidation until the first rising (orange) trend line is met. From my perspective though, Bitcoin operates heavily on panic and at least on a four hour timeframe I don't think we've seen that yet. Perhaps it is amateur of me to discount China markets however purely from a USD standpoint the Bitfinex margin rate is ~3:1. Based on this those who opened margin trades at this recent top face liquidation below $800 and this supports the thesis this longer term (ie. 4H) bounce is short closing from higher opens. Time will tell if I'm right and if so we will either see flatlining (consolidation) or a final push down to a panic zone below $800 at which point all hell will break loose as margin calls start piling on each other.
Penafian
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