Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle 3

As you can see in the chart above, BTC has had 4-year cycles of bull and bear markets. The purpose of this idea is to keep in mind the big picture in regards to BTC price.

In my opinion, Cycle 3 has now begun. It was a brutal bear market but believe it or not, it was shorter than the Cycle 2 bear market by a few weeks.

However, it is important to understand that even though the bear market is over, we are still a long way from new highs and parabolic moves.

If Cycle 3 acts similar to Cycle 2 in terms of time and price, the following timeline is expected:

- BTC retests previous high/makes a new high in December-2020/January-2021. No one and I mean no one (news, family, friends, etc.) will give a shit about bitcoin until it hits a new high. This is why the smart money is invested around this time ($3,000 to $5,000) near the Cycle 3 low.
- BTC goes crazy (parabolic) between June-2021 and November-2021. Expect a lot of talk about crypto in general during this period. You'll hear about it on TV, newspapers, family, friends, etc.
- BTC crashes hard on January-2022. As usual, when everyone and their mother is invested in crypto, it will crash HARD.

NOTE: The above timeline will NOT be 100% accurate. However, it provides a great perspective on how long it takes for BTC to make a significant move even if the cycle low is already behind us.