2021 - Q1, Q2 2022
If I were to make a (not so, pretty much based-on-nothing) calculated guess about how BTCUSD chart will look like in the next 3-6 months, this is what I think could happen.
Q1 2022 - expiration in mid march:
As we're still in downtrend months Jan and Feb will be 2 red monthly candles with price bouncing between local support/res levels like
(1) 42.6k local support, then a slow humble "hey-it's-a-new-year!" bounce-crawl back to
resistance @
48K (2) which would be met with substantial shorting [48k is ~3% stop-loss below 50k]
and by the end of Jan we'd retest sub 40k area - 38k (3), then a short break on monthly close, here comes February,
we retest that descending blue "was-support-now-resistance" line @ 44k (4), get rejected there [44k is 2% below 45k]
and are now fully ready to our main target - 31k (5).
Why
31K you might ask? area in 30k-40k is where most of serious long-term buyers have their average price, which if revisited would generate a very high volume of trades as imho very small number of long-term(talking about institutional, not necessarily you or your barber/plumber) buyers would want to hold their risky asset in red and will likely just close in break-even. So their escape will rock the market boat low enough to generate a final drop, which will signal that sellers at that stage are exhausted.
Is there any serious reason for the price to go even lower? Any wild news might air, but if we just look at BTC as an instrument-insurance vs inflation, then the layout is still bullish, so I'd expect many of those, who had to exit due to risk constraints, to reenter.
But31K is also where most of shorters would likely close their positions as keeping their position open hoping that we go much lower than 30k is basically like shorting the bottom.
So if we stop @31K and a good amount of long players are out - what might happen? Yes, a bounce(or should I say a local reversal?)
31K range is also where 1.618 fib extension if we check last (Nov10-68k --> Dec4-
42K) impulse.
$31-30k could also mean a retest of yearly 2021 open @29.k ! (that black dotted horizontal line) - not a bad sign for a new uptrend, no?
If we indeed make a U-turn @31k, the chart will look like at a massive incomplete H&S wih left-shoulder peaking @13.04.2021 and head @08.11.2021.
So what's it's gonna be? - 2 red months of cooldown and a slower-than-before-but-still an uptrend? Let's see.
Q1 2022 - expiration in mid march:
As we're still in downtrend months Jan and Feb will be 2 red monthly candles with price bouncing between local support/res levels like
(1) 42.6k local support, then a slow humble "hey-it's-a-new-year!" bounce-crawl back to
resistance @
48K (2) which would be met with substantial shorting [48k is ~3% stop-loss below 50k]and by the end of Jan we'd retest sub 40k area - 38k (3), then a short break on monthly close, here comes February,
we retest that descending blue "was-support-now-resistance" line @ 44k (4), get rejected there [44k is 2% below 45k]
and are now fully ready to our main target - 31k (5).
Why
31K you might ask? area in 30k-40k is where most of serious long-term buyers have their average price, which if revisited would generate a very high volume of trades as imho very small number of long-term(talking about institutional, not necessarily you or your barber/plumber) buyers would want to hold their risky asset in red and will likely just close in break-even. So their escape will rock the market boat low enough to generate a final drop, which will signal that sellers at that stage are exhausted.Is there any serious reason for the price to go even lower? Any wild news might air, but if we just look at BTC as an instrument-insurance vs inflation, then the layout is still bullish, so I'd expect many of those, who had to exit due to risk constraints, to reenter.
But
31K is also where most of shorters would likely close their positions as keeping their position open hoping that we go much lower than 30k is basically like shorting the bottom.So if we stop @
31K and a good amount of long players are out - what might happen? Yes, a bounce(or should I say a local reversal?)31K range is also where 1.618 fib extension if we check last (Nov10-68k --> Dec4-42K) impulse.$31-30k could also mean a retest of yearly 2021 open @29.k ! (that black dotted horizontal line) - not a bad sign for a new uptrend, no?
If we indeed make a U-turn @31k, the chart will look like at a massive incomplete H&S wih left-shoulder peaking @13.04.2021 and head @08.11.2021.
So what's it's gonna be? - 2 red months of cooldown and a slower-than-before-but-still an uptrend? Let's see.
Dagangan aktif
[Red wave] Phase (1) is done: greet base was hit.Nota
Would be fair to make an update on this idea and mention that even though we're miles away from my vague forecast of 77.5k new ATH(lol), the overall price action in first 5 months of 2022 matched the forecast quite well, especially Feb 10, Apr 06 and May 05.And summer had obviously a completely ifferent direction due to russian invasion + USD strengthening.
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