Breakout for Bitcoin, but no conviction and follow through
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This market is for 99% build on sentiment, expectation and believe. There is no real fundamental basis yet. Therefore (the way see it) if trust gets damaged even a little bit, it becomes much more difficult for the market to recover from this.
I am saying for a while now, Bitcoin will never see a new ATH again. Unless some real fundamental change comes in play that could give people trust and push everything up again. Inexperienced people have seen to many big drops lately, lost to much money, to just keep on buying and paying higher prices for something that has a lot of risk. Up to the big crash from the 20K, It almost didn't matter at wich point one would get in the market, because everytime it would make a new ATH.
So i dont think this market will see those fast big bull runs anymore (unless something big happens). The conviction we saw up untill a month ago is just gone! Ofcourse there are still many bulls, but even these bulls just can't be as convinced as they used to be. This break out of the 11.500, of this triangle is just really disappointing! For normal markets it's completely normal that it is testing it's former resistance levels as support now. But it's not normal for Bitcoin. That means something has changed. People are getting less blind, are buying less impulsive. So even if another attempt will be made to take out the ATH, it will take much more time than before. I dont mean months, but it's impossible it will be done in a few days or a week.
Short term, difficult to say. I am still flat, even though i really want to short it. But i always take a small brake after a few bad trades. Even though i made a massive profit the last few weeks, this is a very emotional market. Taking a break is necessary sometimes, to be able to view the markets objectively. Pure TA says it broke out short term, higher lows (most important factor) broke out the big triangle and so on. But longer term it's still in a downtrend and fundamentally it's things have changed. Just to many mixed signals! But this is very common for sideways action, to get confused. And whales usually try to do this, because they dont want traders getting long or short for the best prices. They just want them to get in at the tops and shake them out with big fast drops, but the same happens the other way around ofcourse!
I am saying for a while now, Bitcoin will never see a new ATH again. Unless some real fundamental change comes in play that could give people trust and push everything up again. Inexperienced people have seen to many big drops lately, lost to much money, to just keep on buying and paying higher prices for something that has a lot of risk. Up to the big crash from the 20K, It almost didn't matter at wich point one would get in the market, because everytime it would make a new ATH.
So i dont think this market will see those fast big bull runs anymore (unless something big happens). The conviction we saw up untill a month ago is just gone! Ofcourse there are still many bulls, but even these bulls just can't be as convinced as they used to be. This break out of the 11.500, of this triangle is just really disappointing! For normal markets it's completely normal that it is testing it's former resistance levels as support now. But it's not normal for Bitcoin. That means something has changed. People are getting less blind, are buying less impulsive. So even if another attempt will be made to take out the ATH, it will take much more time than before. I dont mean months, but it's impossible it will be done in a few days or a week.
Short term, difficult to say. I am still flat, even though i really want to short it. But i always take a small brake after a few bad trades. Even though i made a massive profit the last few weeks, this is a very emotional market. Taking a break is necessary sometimes, to be able to view the markets objectively. Pure TA says it broke out short term, higher lows (most important factor) broke out the big triangle and so on. But longer term it's still in a downtrend and fundamentally it's things have changed. Just to many mixed signals! But this is very common for sideways action, to get confused. And whales usually try to do this, because they dont want traders getting long or short for the best prices. They just want them to get in at the tops and shake them out with big fast drops, but the same happens the other way around ofcourse!
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Now at support level!Nota
Should stay above 11.500 to be a convincing, successful pullbackNota
A break of 11.700/11.800 would confirm a succesfull pullback (short term at least), but because it dropped below the 11.500 (previous update), chances increased for sideways action. Normally a pullback has to be seen as a perfect buy or add opportunity for bulls. So normally it should go up in price and not stay here to long, otherwise it will fail!
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I still really want to short it now, and normally i would, but i will not :) LOL. Maybe tomorrow. Good luck, probably the last updateNota
I just knew it!! Anything can still happen from here, but it should not have dropped below the 11.400. 11.000 is also some sort of support, the trend line of the bigger triangle is also around that level.Now it is making a flag after a flag, very very weak!!
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Coinbase was the bad brother this time, the gap went up to 500!Nota
Not looking good! Think the double bottom at 11.100 will break. But up till now it's still sideways action! Confusing bulls and bearsNota
I am shorting it at 11.200 with a stop at 11.300, small positionNota
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And it dropped below the support as i suspected, should stay below the 11.100 Nota
Out at 10950 :)Nota
If it crawls back to that former support line, i will probably short it again, Nota
Looking very weak! Almost certain it will drop more!Nota
Shorting it again at 11040, short stop, small positionNota
I think these 2 options are possible now, my stop is around 11.250Nota
Picasso LOL :)Nota
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BTC at Coinsbase has a real horrible picture now, looking very very badNota
Ofcourse after the fact, its easy to say that the outbreak was a bull trap. Although i predicted this upfront!! And i also traded on this fact, but the upswing just went to high on Bitfinex, so it went through my stop. BUT, i did mentioned many times (in my trade break) that i still did not like this upswing at all. Why? because the follow through was weak and no conviction at all. These were the main signs. And Coinbase was showing the direction this time, because it fell behind 500 points! I have read that Theter can be blamed for this. I am sorry to say this for the bulls, but this bulltrap is almost an guarantee that the lows of 10K and probably even 9K get broken. For me at least its a guarantee, so please dont make desicions based on my opinion, because i am also wrong sometimes. Although my followers know that i am right most of the time :)Nota
For the ones who are interested in the normal stock markets, look at my DAX chart, i think the long term Bear market has started! Also look at my EURUSD chart from a while back.Nota
Think next drop will start from this level 10650Nota
And hit the bulls eye again with 10650 :)Nota
It will be cooling down nowNota
think it will do something like this
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On second thought, looks like the 11.500 is to expensive alreadyNota
What a ride again :) It should settle down a bit around the 10.000. But dont think it will hold again! Sometimes it's just to easy to trade on, only when it goes sideways between certain levels, like the last few days.Nota
Idealy it goes back to the former support level of the big triangle, from there to short it again :)Nota
Because of the last drop chances are bigger it wont even get above the 10.450 anymore.Nota
Upwards correction is probably already overNota
Coinbase chart is a bit easier at the moment to predict the direction (probably because it has been the leading brother the last few days)Nota
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I almost farted from laughing so hard, that there are still people buying the 10.000 level thinking it will hold again LOL :)Nota
Correct me if i am wrong, Bifinex is the only one still above the 10K, trying to pull all other exchanges above the 10K againNota
Think if Bitfinex drops below the 10K, expect an acceleration down!Nota
They actually did it, lets see how long it will holdNota
I think i will seriously transfer all my funds from Bitfinex, with all the Theter issues and the last few days, i dont want to have funds there if it goes bankrupt. What a f.cking jokeNota
I closed half my positionsNota
Spoofy in tha house, 1000BTC at 9860Nota
I have closed everything now, very satisfied. Could drop more, but i am not taking any chances! Targets reached!Nota
Perfect timing if i say so myself :). For now i expect it to cool down. I dont think that this low is the end of it, could be, but i dont think so. I did not go long because there is way to much negative news and sentiment this time.Nota
those 1000 of spoofy got sold very quickly. It just has to be a closing of all his short positions he probably build up from 11.500 up to 12.200 with his creation of the bull trap. That's an easy 2 to 3 million profit for a few days :). If anyone knows him i would like to know if he is hiring people, even if it would be to bring him coffee and make sandwiches. Just to be able to see how he does it all :)Nota
It's not 100% certain, but as i got fooled at the 17.200 (bulltrap) top by spoofy, when had a 1000 in the sellbook. Now he had a 1000 in the bid book. I have seen more ofcourse, BUT of those 2, at least the 17.200 we know it was the top of the run from the 11K low. So now i am thinking, what if this is the low, because he has closed (at least a lot) of his short positions. I dont know, just thinking out load :)Nota
I am going against my thoughts and TA and whatever, i going with my theory about spoofy, going with the manipulation of this market. I am going long now :) (small position though)Nota
I am out, 350 points, thanks spoofy. Dont have the balls to keep it any longer. Goes against my own view. It could very well go up further towards 10.500/10.700 or so. But i am not waiting for it, to riskyNota
I am shorting it now, showing weakness again. Only positive now, could be making a higher low at 9900Nota
Making a bearish flag, but its getting pushed in WITH volume right now, stop is the read areaNota
For the ones who are interested in the normal stock markets, 90% sure that the Bear market has started since last week and is (almost) being confirmed this weekNota
They are turning it up again, probably short termNota
Iam out again, think it will keep on going sideways again above 10KNota
I am making a small long trade now 9600, small stop just below 9500Nota
Someone has a hidden buy order at 9536, i have not seen it all, but i have seen at least 200 to 300 BTC being sold into it, Spoofy had 500 BTC at 9500, all being sold into! My stop went through, but my guess is it will go up from here, but i am staying flat.Nota
Just to be clear, with up i mean short term!Nota
There is just no buying volume, nobody wants to buy the low! The spikes that we are just to after big drops, just aint here no more. Very bad sign!Nota
A break of 9700, would this drop downNota
No more updates for now, i just don't understand this TV community, i am giving perfect trades and idea's most of the time, but people only want to hear how great crypto's are and how high they will go. Dont want to hear a objective view, mostly about the facts. I even gave perfect call for the start of the Bear market of the stockmarket (so far at least), even the EURUSD i called a big move up from the 1.17.
Likes followers and views are staying behind to much. When these increase, i will start posting again. I know there are some of you, who show their appreciation, but i have mentioned a few times before what my goal is here.
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Gonna give a last update, i have just jumped into the recovery train, with a stop of about 250 points! Good luckNota
The recovery train has been sold :) LOL, I have not seen it this weak in a long time. There is just no real buying after a dip. People are just dumping! This aint panick dumping as we have seen in the big drops, just controlled and slowely, thats really bad! This is probably going to 8K low today i think. Unless we going to see an upspike of at least 400 points with volume!Nota
Obvious Bitfinex is trying to pull the little brothers up again, but nobody wants to, BTC is really being dumped. BUT, what's happening now, that it's staying so close, if the dumping slows down, i am almost sure a big spike up will occur! But only when the dumping slows down. This has the characteristics of a descending wedge!Nota
And there it is, big chance it will not even last an half hour, but we will seeNota
They are all make a clear bull flags now, hopefully they go up 400 points more :)Nota
This is it, or it is going to spike up another 200 points, or it is going to drop towards the lows again. My guess is upNota
Current reality about Crypto markets, in a nut shell. It takes one to know one if you ask me :)facebook.com/PatrickBetDavid.Valuetainment/videos/1556804521100585/
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