BTC Short, Possible repetition of global high pattern?
There seems to be a repetition of fractal patterns of the early 2021 highs from 43k to 65k with the current trend from 40k to 50k of Aug-Sept.
Could speculate to enter a short ~49k, with a stop loss ~51k and take profit at 40k and 36k. 36k take profit derives from both the bars pattern target, possible retest of PoC of the crabbing that occurred from May through Aug, and 2.618 fib extension of the Sept. 13 low to the Sept. 19 high. 40k is the 1.618 extension of the same lows and highs.
This idea becomes much more probable as it fails to continue to support the lower blue trendline.
Could speculate to enter a short ~49k, with a stop loss ~51k and take profit at 40k and 36k. 36k take profit derives from both the bars pattern target, possible retest of PoC of the crabbing that occurred from May through Aug, and 2.618 fib extension of the Sept. 13 low to the Sept. 19 high. 40k is the 1.618 extension of the same lows and highs.
This idea becomes much more probable as it fails to continue to support the lower blue trendline.
Nota
Nonetheless, a volume breakout is imminent. This explains the tight stop loss I have compared to my normal 3/1 reward/risk ratioNota
Not too familiar with the real-estate/Evergrande situation going on in China, but it could be related to a possible BTC correction in the future.Nota
Rising indication of manipulation on lower timeframes (30min. and below)Nota
Some profit taken at 40kNota
Another short opportunity at 44-45kNota
Possible long opportunity at 38k, retesting the white downwards trendline, if this long hits before the short opp. mentioned earlier, i'd recommend not opening that shortNota
added more to short at 43.8k, good short opportunity over 43.7kNota
Possible bear trap from the current dump to 21W EMA considering the double bottom wick could've formed near 40k could've ended the Elliot wave downtrend. Not completely certain due to lack of experience identifying them, but if 40k is breached, then it def. wasn't one.
Nota
I believe we could be starting wave 2 uptrend from 40 if it is a bear trap, but I hope not as I'm still short from 48k, would love to see a drop to at least ~36kNota
40k*Nota
Read a bit more on bear traps. Volume breakout to the downside, lack of divergences, and general lack of interest to buy at the moment to push the price upward as of now does not make the current trend a bear trap. If price does not break out from the previous high by market open, let alone the next 3-4 hours, expect more selloffs to 36k. Doomsday's price sits at 21k, so I might even keep the short open if we hit 36k.Nota
36k-40k seems like a good take-profit area as there is a confluence of multiple fib extensions 1.618 levels ranging in that band. WillClemente also posted on Twitter a chart of a bid band in that region. Though, if this band is broken, expected selloffs to 30k, possibly even to 21k. Check for volume interest/bids relative to a very short-term time frame (5 min. or less) as we approach 36k to verify if this interest is true.
Nota
We may be in a bearish abcde triangle with a target at ~43.5k. If an hourly candle closes above it, I'd go long on the pullback back towards it. Another rejection could create more crabbing in the 40k-44k range as there is buy pressure below the 40k region.Nota
This crabbish action could also be found fundamentally from the clash of evergrande, SPX/CPI fib wave 5 target, bitcoin's ETF, and bitcoin's taproot.Nota
Hourly candle close at 43.6k, 100 over target, and rejection does not look good. Would go short if 43.5k gets rejected as resistance until 42.6k, followed by 40k. Not entering a long until 45k can be held as support, or we hit 40k again. Too much crabbish noise in the markets, but I suspect we'll get a final definitive move soon to trigger a rally to the global ath or to sub 30k.
Dagangan ditutup secara manual
44.5k resistance broken, new bullish trend?Either way short position closed.
Nota
Yep, mega pump 2 hours after the short trade closed. Note how the pump occurred after 45k resistance was broken, suggesting that there was major capital on the sidelines fomoing from waiting for an entry sub 40k.We're not in the clear yet. If bids within 36k-40k clear up from this fomo, whilst being under 50k, there is a risk of weak support in that region if revisited. But as of now, there still remains a large number of bids from 38k-40k, making a 3 wave bull trend target of 64k more possible (1.618 fib from 50k to 40k).
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.