BTC: Slowing Down

Bitcoin managed to stabilize over the weekend after its recent slide, nudging slightly higher from local lows. We continue to expect the current rebound—interpreted as wave B—to stretch into the blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once that move tops out, the next leg lower should follow, with wave C driving the price into the lower blue zone between $62,395 and $51,323. That would likely complete wave a in orange and pave the way for a temporary recovery before wave b rolls over into the final drop of wave (ii). The alternative scenario, which we’re still assigning a 30% probability, assumes Bitcoin is already in wave alt.(i) in blue—a more bullish path that would extend the rally well beyond $130,891 without another major correction first.

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