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Volume makes it tricky. Watch out for a possible dump.

We have declining volume and some bearish hints.

Unless volume picks up + Bitcoin manages to breakout/reject the wedge the odds for a sensible correction will grow, day by day.

Keep an eye on support, don't take more risk on a confirmed breadown.
Be vigilant in case of price moving down to the 50-55k danger zone.
Have a SL.

Nota

Straight down into the danger zone.
We just saw a > 10.000$ swing down to 51.000$, all this within about 24hrs.

Now bouncing.
Watch out, that's hardly over.

Nota

Awaiting breakout of the 1H triangle.

Bounce or slump.

Nota

Usual futures expiration volatility.
Let's wait and see the dust settle.

Nota

Nothing new so far.

Bears keep in control under 57k.

Nota

Danger zone pierced, we're in troublesome waters.

That said 1H hints a bounce looming.

Be aware of risks: that's like catching a fallling knife.
No warranty.

Nota

The whole picture, as per opening post:

Today close matters.

Nota

Bouncing.
look at close tonight.

IF it can manage to place a close over 50k and paint a hammer may bounce further.

Nota

Meanwhile on TF 1H:

Playing nice, let's see how far it can keep with the arrow.
If it manages to touch resistance it may try to confirm that falling wedge, eventually.

Nota

As usual, be careful.
Here you're playing with fire.

Nota

Bit late, but bounce ongoing after TD count=9.

Fair enough.

Nota

Testing top of danger zone.

Nota

Still not out of the woods, so far.

Nota

Vertex of rising wedge.
Watch it, as if the pattern gets confirmed a dip towards 51k area may happen.

Nota

Here we go.

Let's see, i would welcome an inverted H&S.
Soon to say.

Nota

Looks a inverted H&S indeed.

Small right shoulder ( did not pierce 52k), but at neckline already:

We'll see.
Hopefully it will achieve a pullback to previous support, now resistance.

Nota

Have a trailing stop.

Nota

Pullback ongoing, close to 60k mark but failing to nail the critical 62k area.

All we have is some uninteresting price action on low volume.

We have a rising wedge, so watch out.

For now we have to wait for some volume to kick in in order to make any meaningful evaluation. No hurry.

Nota

Pullback to wedge support (now resistance) and down again.

Ugly.

Nota

Let's consider bad and worst (dashed) scenario, for a moment.

Whatever will happen, that's enough to use some caution if you're Long ....
Watch out.

Nota

Anything below the light blue support on close would call for trouble.

Nota

Guess what ?

;)

Nota

Watch it carefully. Whole scenario:

Ongoing critical test of MM20/W.

Nota

Chart update, some lines removed for clarity.

It may find support on the fuchsia line and bounce.
Otherwise down to target box ( see post above )

Nota

First 30% correction of year achieved ( close price computation ).
Historically buying 30% correction for long term holding is rewarding.

See below: red bars are BUYs on 30% corrections.
Blue bars are monthly buys (e.g. accumulation plan ).

Historically (from 2010 onwards) red chart outperforms blue chart.
Nowadays by about 100%.

Meaning that buyng the dips usually outperforms accumulation.
That's why i always buy this kind of dip, even repeatedly, without caring about the ongoing weakening.

Nota

No bounce, straight to target box.
Very impulsive move, no buying pressure so far.

This spells for trouble unless we can get a bounce by weekly close.

f-73

Penafian

Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.

f-73