Potential Black swan would summon a dragon

BTC has been rejected at the apparent resistance of the 25200 zone.
Gann Square, as applied, also implies that the buy-side liquidity above is hard to reach.

Moreover, a harmonic black swan pattern (black) has formed, which would trigger another potential bearish harmonic pattern - a dragon (red).

The bearish dragon's target would be 0.618 (20104) -0.786 (19001).
However, given the Gann Square Arc's support, 0.618 or shallower is likely for the initial move.

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Updated.