BTC Macro View - Possible Pullback

25 Mei

Failed breakout or just a pause?
Bitcoin wicked above the 7-month range ($74k–$109k) and hit a new ATH at $112k—but the breakout lacked conviction:

-3 Day candle did not close outside the range. It wicked above ATH and closed back inside, which often signals a failed breakout.
-Volume on the breakout was low—not the kind of commitment you'd expect on price discovery.
-Unless we reclaim the highs with conviction, the odds lean toward mean reversion or a deeper pullback, especially as macro risk increases (S&P weakness, renewed trade tension, credit rating concerns).

S&P Correlation
I was calling for a pullback on the S&P on May 16th in this Idea.

-

-The S&P has already started fading off highs.
-BTC kept pushing a bit longer—but may have just been lagging the risk-off shift.
-Now both look vulnerable and possibly entering correction together.

Macro Narrative Timeline
March–April:
Trump escalates tariff rhetoric → markets sell hard:
S&P falls from 6,100 → 4,800
BTC dumps from $108k → $74k

Mid-April–May:
Trump pivots, talks trade deals → markets bounce:
S&P rallies back to 6,000
BTC rips to $112k ATH

Now at highs, bearish news flow returns:
Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade
Trump targeting EU and Apple with new tariffs
S&P rolling over again
BTC starting to follow

This is narrative cycling:
Scare → Ease → Pump → Re-scare near highs

Short-Term Setup
Macro structure is still bullish. But short-term risk is rising fast:
-Bearish RSI divergence on the 4H chart
-Failed breakout on the 3D, Low volume ATH push
-Crowded longs getting chopped
-BTC media coverage going vertical—endless bullish predictions across TV, headlines, social media
-Media didn't talk about BTC when it was at $74k. They were loud now, at the highs.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels from April 9 Low → $112k High

0.786 = $103,969
0.618 = $97,665
0.5 = $93,237

-Each level aligns with prior consolidation and offers strong technical context.
-No need to guess. We will watch volume + structure at each zone.
-These are prime areas to accumulate spot.
-No leverage. No chasing. Let it come to you.
-This is what Bitcoin is—accumulate pullbacks, hold, survive the chop.
-After this correction, I believe we push back to ATH and into price discovery.


Whale Psychology Trap (my thoughts on it)
Recently a Hyperliquid whale built a record breaking $1B+ BTC long on a defi exchange, drew in a massive herd to follow, then flipped short over the weekend after closing the position.

-Now that crowd is likely emotionally tied to their longs—feeling betrayed, stubborn, and unwilling to cut on a pullback.
-Red flag: we now have whales publicly influencing the herd with precision. Not a bullish short-term signal.

Final Thoughts
We’re seeing alignment across:

-Failed breakout on 3D
-Overheated retail sentiment (even though retail thinks the reverse, all you hear right now is "RETAIL IS NOT EVEN HERE YET")
-Public Whale traps in motion
-Media pushing euphoria the past two weeks
-Macro headwinds slowly creeping back in at the most convenient time to pullback
-BTC remains in a macro uptrend. But this is not a healthy breakout yet.

P.S.
This breakdown is mainly for traders.
But let me be clear:
-The smartest approach to Bitcoin is still simple—accumulate and hold spot.
-Given BTC’s position in a world of debt-soaked economies, eroding fiat trust, and centralized monetary control, it's far riskier to have none than to hold through volatility
-The wealthy, the powerful, the largest corporations — they’re starting to understand this reality
-Your job? Keep buying dips and holding long-term.

Use macro views like this to:
-Take profits from overextended markets (U.S. equities, alts, etc.)
-Time bigger BTC adds when fear returns

But if you own spot BTC?
Don’t sell it. Ever.
Trade other assets. Stack sats.
And if BTC ever hits $1M/coin... then sure—do whatever you want

25 Mei

Nota

0.618 is the most common and healthiest retracement for continuation.

0.786 gets touched a lot in BTC—but often doesn’t hold if macro is shaky.

0.5 should only be expected if we lose confidence in trend or S&P starts unwinding hard.

28 Mei

Nota

Update – May 28, 2025

-BTC bounced back to $110.8K on Monday/Tuesday.
-Price is now chopping between $110.8K and $108K, currently sitting at $107.8K.
-Volume remains very low, and this grind/chop after the $112K ATH looks more like sideways distribution to trap more top buyers and leverage longs that can be pushed to panic sell when we correct.

-No strong buyer commitment showing yet.
-Still under our 7 month range.

I am still favoring the correction scenario—we're watching the same retracement zones

Let price action and volume at these levels confirm. Until then, the breakout remains unconfirmed, and risk of deeper pullback stays elevated.

30 Mei

Dagangan aktif

Coming up on target #1. 103.9K. 103-103.9K should slow down and chop for a little. Evaluate price action at that time see if we are more likely to head lower or recover from here. If I were to guess at this time I would say we are more likely headed to 93-97k range. Update makes me make the trade active. I am not active on a short or anything. I plan to add more to my bags on this pullback as originally planned

1 Jun

Nota

BTC Update – June 1, 2025 6PM EST

I realized my original Fibonacci retracement was drawn upside down. After flipping it correctly, the first target at $103,168 (.236 retrace) tagged perfectly on Friday’s low.

Since that $103K low:

-Price has been making higher lows into the weekend.
-But volume is still very low
-This weak reaction at target #1 increases the probability we eventually bleed lower into deeper retracement zones.

Corrected Fibonacci Levels (from $74K to $112K):
0.236 retrace = $103,168 tagged
0.382 retrace = $97,681 (Target #2)
0.5 retrace = $93,247 (Target #3)

Until volume confirms buyers are stepping in with conviction, I still lean toward a deeper pullback into $97K–$93K zones before any true reset or breakout continuation.

If volume comes in soon, it’s very possible $103K was the entire pullback, and we resume the march toward ATH and new highs from here.

If volume remains low, we could see a grind lower into $97K or $93K, where stronger structural support and deeper fib levels align.

Bottom line: All 3 zones remain valid, but confirmation will come from volume and structure. Keep watching closely. This pivot will help define the next leg.

5 Jun

Nota

BTC Update – June 5, 2025 | 2:45PM EST

Today we just printed a new local low at $102.6K. As expected, the lack of volume has kept pressure on price, and lower levels still look probable.

The first fib zone (103.1K) held temporarily (6 days) But failed on follow through.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels (from $74K → $112K):
0.236 = $103,168 tagged and failed after 6 days
0.382 = $97,681 likely next magnet
0.5 = $93,247 not on the table yet

We now watch for potential reaction at the next key level:
$97.5K – $98K zone.

A clean bounce there with strong volume could mark a reset and reversal

9 Jun

Nota

BTC Update – June 9, 2025 4:30PM EST

After the $100.3K low last week, Bitcoin bounced hard over the weekend and into Monday, pushing to a high of $108,850. Just under the high from Jan ($109.3K).

-Volume was light during most of the weekend’s bounce
-Monday brought better volume, but still not strong compared to most bounces with full follow through. The structure feels more like a controlled drift higher, not true accumulation
-This type of move is typical of distribution baiting longs, squeezing shorts, and allowing larger players to unload higher

If this rally extends and reclaims $112K with real volume that will start to be convincing a real price discovery push is starting. But right now, this looks like a trap. A squeeze after a breakdown, not a trend restart.

The nice bounce makes sense after a clean drop to $100K, but I still think $97K–$93K is on the table unless we see strong spot buyers show up.