Bitcoin - 42k soon! (Fibonacci channel, roadmap)

7 Jul

Why am I bearish on BTC?

1. With all the crypto regulations around the world and, recently, banning stable coins in Europe + high transaction fees - crypto is losing its popularity, and people are starting to hate crypto. Which means no one wants to use it, and where there is no use, there is no money. Maybe crypto is not as good a technology as presented by banks.
   
2. Crypto has been a huge disappointment for all investors in recent years. Ask yourself a question: Are you happy with your crypto holdings or not? Wasn't it better to put your money into NVIDIA? Nvidia made 10x in only a 2-year period. And this is a big stock, not a penny stock.
   
3. Bitcoin hit an all-time high in March and failed to continue the price discovery. Bitcoin was not strong enough to continue in the bull market, and instead, we saw a liquidity sweep, and it is currently experiencing a 27% crash from its peak.
   
4. Bitcoin failed to sustain the black ascending channel (that you can see on the chart). What we want to see is a breakout above an ascending channel, then a retest of it, and then a continuation of the bull run. In Bitcoin's case, we did have a retest of the black channel in April, but recently the price went back to the channel, which is a strong sign of weakness.
   
5. We have completed the Elliott wave impulse wave (12345). Waves 2 and 4 have both around 20% retracement.
   

Bitcoin is definitely heading towards the 42k level. Why is this level so important? We need to take a look at the chart and draw a Fibonacci parallel channel. Always use significant points to draw it, such as the major swing high or peak of a bull market.

In our case, we use the most important points: bull market peak (2021), bear market bottom (2022), and bull market peak (2024). We have a very nice-looking Fibonacci channel, and now we need to look for important levels. I always recommend using 0.618, 0.5, and 0.382. We also have 0.764 and 0.236, but these levels in general have a lower success bounce rate. 0.5 is not a Fibonacci number, but it's the middle of the ascending channel, which is logically a very strong dynamic level. The first major support is at 0.382 (around 42k) because we also have a POC (point of control) of the volume profile.

Let me know what you think about my analysis in the comment section, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.

7 Jul

Nota

The weekly candle closes in 4 hours. How does it look?
We have the lowest close price and lowest low since February 2024. The candle has a big red body and a small wick. This is very bearish.

8 Jul

Nota

The weekly candle has closed, even more bearish than in the previous screenshot above. I discovered another pattern that is likely to form on Bitcoin. This means another 38% drop in the medium term.

8 Jul

Nota

Bitcoin needs a relief rally. Daily RSI oversold, but we should hit 52k first!

People in the comment section complaining why I wasn't bearish on TOP? I was, you can see it here.

8 Jul

Nota

Bitcoin bear markets usually last +- 1 year. If this was the top of the bull run, we are heading for a big stagnation.

9 Jul

Nota

Currently, Bitcoin is bearish, and I expect 52k to be hit, probably very soon! In the next of my posts, I will share who Satoshi Nakamoto is. Make sure you hit the follow button.