I have been looking at previous price action of BTC following halving. The vertical lines are the months when BTC halving took place Here is what I noticed:
1. The peak of the bull run following halving is decreasing. From the month of halving to the peak of the bull run the increases were 9,100% (91x) (2012), followed by 2,000% (20x) (2016) and more recently 650% (6.5x) (2020);
2. There are usually a few months following halving when the bull run actually get under way, so expect a period of relatively non-activity or even negativity;
3. The peak occurs between 11 and 17 months; and
4. The price usually peaks twice.
What are your thoughts / observations?
1. The peak of the bull run following halving is decreasing. From the month of halving to the peak of the bull run the increases were 9,100% (91x) (2012), followed by 2,000% (20x) (2016) and more recently 650% (6.5x) (2020);
2. There are usually a few months following halving when the bull run actually get under way, so expect a period of relatively non-activity or even negativity;
3. The peak occurs between 11 and 17 months; and
4. The price usually peaks twice.
What are your thoughts / observations?
Nota
Having done some rough "at the bag of an envelope calculation" I am predicting BTC price to increase y 2.92 following halving. Given the current price, which is around 3 1/2 months before the event, I expect it to reach around $120k.
Penafian
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.