Bitcoin capped below 115k: plan and invalidations

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Market Overview
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BTC is staging a controlled recovery above 111k while stalling beneath a heavy 113.8k–116k supply zone ahead of the 117.97k pivot. The backdrop is constructive, but intraday timeframes still show profit-taking.

• Momentum: Bullish 📈 on 1D/12H, with active consolidation on 2H–6H after the 114.6k–114.8k rejection.
  
• Key levels:
  • Resistances (HTF): 114.8k–116k (1D/12H), 117.97k (1D), 124.3k (W).
  • Supports (HTF): 112.4k–111.5k (12H), 110.4k (pivot), 109.3k (6H).
  
• Volumes: Normal on 1D, very high intraday on the 114.6k–114.8k fade, moderate on 6H.
  
• Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H Up; 2H/4H/6H Down (pullback within HTF trend); 1H/30m/15m tactical rebounds at 112.6k–112.9k. Elevated offer-side volumes argue for clear validations before breakout.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY → mild risk-on bias, aligned with HTF momentum; occasional intraday spikes to STRONG BUY, but not persistent.
  

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Trading Playbook
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Context: HTF trend is bullish; favor disciplined dip-buys at supports with confirmation, be cautious below 114.8k–116k.

• Global bias: Moderately bullish while > 111k; primary invalidation below 110.4k (structure loss).
  
• Opportunities:
  • Buy-the-dip: Buy 112.7k–112.2k on reversal signal; target 114.6k then 115.3k/117.0k.
  • Breakout: Buy break & hold > 114.8k (30m–1H) aiming for 117.97k.
  • Tactical sell: Fade clean rejection at 114.6k–115.3k (wick + volume) toward 113.7k then 112.9k.
  
• Risk zones / invalidations: A firm break < 112.2k reopens 111.5k–110.4k; a 1D close > 118k invalidates tactical shorts.
  
• Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
  • Fed: initial 25 bp cut and gradual easing path → gentle risk-on.
  • Softer USD, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+) → supportive tailwind for BTC.
  • US shutdown risk + CPI/ISM/NFP week → elevated volatility near key levels.
  
• Action plan:
  • Entry: 112.7k–112.2k (candle reversal + intraday momentum rebuild).
  • Stop: below 111.8k (aggressive) or below 110.4k (conservative).
  • TP: 114.6k (TP1) / 115.3k (TP2) / 117.0k (TP3).
  • R/R guide: ~1.8R (tight stop) up to ~2.5–3R (wide stop) depending on execution/trailing.
  

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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Overall HTF is bullish, MTF is breathing, and LTF is rebounding at demand.

• 1D/12H: Bullish structure above 111k–112k; compression below 114.8k–116k. A daily close > 114k strengthens odds for 117.97k.
  
• 6H/4H/2H: Orderly pullback after 109k→114k impulse; buyer pivot 112.4k–111.9k; sustained upside needs > 113.8k then > 114.6k.
  
• 1H/30m/15m: Tactical bid active at 112.6k–112.9k; very high offer-side volumes → wait for confirmations, avoid late chases under 114.8k.
  
• Confluences/divergences: Strong confluence 112.4k–111.5k; recent intraday divergences suggest shallow but jumpy pullbacks.
  

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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is mildly supportive (more dovish Fed, softer USD), while on-chain and ETF signals are positive but uneven.

• Macro events: Fed started easing (−25 bp) with a cautious tone; USD softer, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+); US shutdown risk and CPI/ISM/NFP in focus.
  
• Bitcoin analysis: ETF inflows turned positive on the day but 7D trend is fragile → tactical support to dip-buys; technical structure reclaimed with firm BTC dominance.
  
• On-chain data: STH cost basis near ~111k is pivotal; LTH realized sizable profits; derivatives deleveraging and elevated put skew → respect downside shock risk.
  
• Expected impact: Supportive yet not euphoric, fitting a “buy dips” approach while 110.4k holds; above 114.8k, macro could help extend toward 117.97k.
  

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Key Takeaways
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BTC is recovering above 111k but sellers defend 114.8k–116k.

- Overall trend: Constructively bullish on HTF, with a breathing MTF.
- Best setup: Disciplined buy at 112.7k–112.2k with confirmations; extend if break & hold > 114.8k toward 117.97k.
- Key macro: Gradual Fed easing + softer USD provide a tailwind.
Stay selective: demand confirmations at offers and watch 110.4k as the key line in the sand.