Bitcoin
Panjang

BTC: Three-stage trajector

38
Today's BTC market shows a pattern of high-level consolidation with a pullback, characterized by a three-stage "surge - retracement - consolidation" trajectory. In the early session, it attempted to break through the 124,000 resistance level but failed. Subsequently, it pulled back to around 121,000 to seek support, and later, a bull-bear tug-of-war unfolded within the 122,000 range.
Close attention should be paid to the October 15 deadline for the U.S. government shutdown (Polymarket predicts a 56% probability of it lasting until that date). If the shutdown is extended, leading to further delays in ETF approval, Bitcoin may retrace below 120,000, and in extreme cases, test the support level at 118,000.
The current market is suitable for a "low-leverage + position-splitting strategy": Holders can set 121,000 as the trailing stop level. Given that the current support level has moved upward and trading volume has not contracted, the stop-loss range can be appropriately widened. On the other hand, observers may wait for the price to stabilize above 123,600 or for signs of stabilization with reduced volume after retracing below 120,500 before considering entry, avoiding chasing gains or selling in a panic within the consolidation range.

Buy 121000 - 121500
TP 122000 - 122500 - 122300
SL 120000

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