on 1,5,15,30min have crossed over and candles are punching out through the wall of the channel, pointing up and away. There is of course still a risk that we pull back into the , but ... nah. I don't see that happening. Too much FOMO going on for that. We are doing the last crossings of the channel wall now due to the immense volatile nature of BTCUSD and the many swing traders.
Its important that we cross through the blue resistance line as that's the past top. We've already established a "higher low" of the bigger picture with our touching of 2200 forming a F, but we must now also establish a higher high at 2770.. set alarms here! If we don't, then this will turn very fast for another test downwards, so this will be critical. I will take profit at 2770 for sure and wait and see until north of there.
and on 4hr scale has plenty of gas to give for pedal to the metal type of action full throttle, let's go up. The velocity could either be that of the past 3000 rally or that of the past up trend, line B.
The 4hr and 1day will follow soon enough as we pierce upwards. Now its only a question how far and fast which is mostly determined by the momentum available from - i.e.. you guys out there being buyers - but the setup is clear. BTCUSD want's to test 3000. Its like a child and candy - there's just no control ;-) ... it will be driven by FOMO and all the good news lately of various governments establishing blockchain projects, India regulating bitcoin etc. etc. (I'm hoping to go there and check it out - PM me!).
I went long shortly after we broke out at 2420 and unless I feel like swing trading on the potential and other ABCDE zig zags type of stuff - maybe 5-15min scalping on just to play with timing skills ... then I will stay long.
All other crypto pairs are clearly correlated to BTCUSD so they will follow suit +/- as the BTC is the main wealth creator until ETH takes over.
Have a nice ride and as always - the above is contingent on probabilities easiest modelled by Fibonacci Retracements and of course that none of the ICOs currently ending their fundraising period aren't 100% scams or crash and burn type of things. That could shed away a lot of new investors.
Hedge Fund: finally - some friends and I are starting a hedge fund with these trade setups as model. PM me, just FYI.
What I see and expect is that EMA bands were stretched out a biiiit too far - MACD needs to adjust down and RSI too. So we will have a sliding downwards price action more or less along the north side of the channel wall until we get closer to green ichimoku where RSI will be negative and MACD back on the upswing.
So, our channel strategy should follow Elliott wave theory, waves on waves on waves which is fractal by nature. This works well for asset classes that have little correlation with externalities and are mostly driven by FUD / FOMO (ie. a more perfect market without politicians).
I haven't done the calculus yet but here's some initial thoughts / chart:
Will update as events happen. Happy swing trading! Or stay long for now ;-)
So, I'd go long as soon as Ichimoku merits that while down here and then I'd short along the top of the channel back and forth, probably a bi daily or daily swing?
Just wait a day ;-)
For me it was another profitable setup though sadly we didn't get to test 2750 nor 3000. It looks like we need to build up some more volatility and get 1day MACD negative before we can reach back up.
That's probably happening at 2100 or deeper, so expect bearish.
We may need to go all the way down to 1800 to get MACD 1day calm but more on that later. ... now some coffee, sunday cleaning, life ;-)