Bitcoin

Bitcoin vs Global M2: Can Liquidity Predict the future?

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This chart compares Bitcoin’s price (daily) with a Global M2 indicator that includes the monetary supply of major economies like the U.S., Eurozone, China, and Japan.

It’s not a perfect global measure — but it gives us a reliable macro signal of what global liquidity is doing.

And when it comes to Bitcoin, liquidity is everything.

Why this matters:
Bitcoin is often seen as volatile or unpredictable. But when we zoom out and overlay it with liquidity flows (like M2), a powerful pattern emerges:

Bitcoin tends to follow global M2 with a ~10-week lag.

When M2 rises, Bitcoin often rallies weeks later. When M2 contracts, Bitcoin loses momentum.

This makes M2 a powerful leading indicator — not for predicting exact price levels, but for catching the direction of trend and regime shifts.

What this chart tells us:
  • M2 leads, Bitcoin follows.
  • The curves won’t align perfectly — but the macro structure is there.
  • Big expansions in M2 create a friendlier environment for risk assets like BTC.


This is the same logic used by macro strategists like Raoul Pal: liquidity drives everything.

Important disclaimer:
This doesn’t mean M2 tells you where price will be on a specific date. But it can help identify turning points — and confirm whether we’re in a reflationary vs contractionary environment.

Think of it as a weather forecast, not a GPS pin.

In other words:
This chart doesn't show the price. It shows the future.

Penafian

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