Bitcoin

BTC Hourly EMA Resistance Guide

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BTC is in a dump on the 4 hour time frame as we look for a daily higher low to form after the 12 day bull run to start the month.
There was a notable inverse correlation between BTCUSD and ETHBTC last night, as ETH and LTC are getting some relief by not dropping as much as bitcoin.
We will continue watching the BTC pairing charts of these names for clear daily trend changes if we are to see a notable shift with follow through.
At this point they are notable oversold bounces.

As stated in videos, I patiently waited for 4 hour oversold RSI before starting to scale in, and currently have had 3 orders fill.

I am noticing the biggest mistake people make with oversold bounce plays is a lack of patience when scaling in. Remember these guidelines:
- Always remind yourself "We can see another leg down"
- When short term bounces happen above my bids, and I already have a position I am comfortable with, I move my bids down to reflect the change in short term RSI.
-Space your orders! I leave a minimum of $100 in between bids and often will put $200 in between.
- We never want to be all in unless EXTREMELY confident in the setup... like blue sky breakout confident.

When we are all in on the trade we instantly give up control completely to the asset instead of being in control. Here is an example of what that means.

My orders that filled were $10,789, 10,589, 10,489 (not exact numbers but very close) these filled last night before bed. All of these orders was about half of my capital. I then saw a 5 min inverse head and shoulders and said to myself "I will exit a third of my position break even" which I did low $10,600s. From there I am back to about 35% capital in trades and lots of cash. I put bids 10,200s, 10,000s, 9,900s and go to bed.

This morning that puts me in a situation where I am down 1% on my positions, 4 hour RSI is low 20, and I have 65% cash to work with. For me this is comfortable.

We will not be confident our daily higher low is set until we change the 4 hour trend. From there we will look for a lower high and a tightening daily range through August.

Penafian

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