JackMush
Panjang

Bitcoin - what next - an unorthodox sentiment analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
646 1 13
Recently bitcoin             reached a new high, exhausted, and went through a correction phase. However, during this whole phase there has been a lot of indecisiveness - no one really knew what would happen, and there were a lot of bad guesses.

However, I have a reason to believe the correction is now over and we are heading back up. This is my unorthodox sentiment analysis. Many TA has failed bitcoin             so far, so I'm trying something a lil different.

This is a chart marking sentiment analysis, based on the conversations I have seen people having across several exchanges, news, and observing buy/sell activity. The bright green area represents hysteria, or the exhaustion phase which caused the correction, the normal green/red zones are bull/bear sentiment respectively - and the grey zone is the neutral zone, where there has been a breakout but people are still cautious.

There was a huge impulse move recently which can be seen as a very promising breakout, however there are some things to note:
(1) There are still many bears in Bitcoin             right now who are doubtful this is the end of a correction, and are adding to their short positions
(2) There may be a retest of the trendline as new support - which could fail as many bulls were knocked out in the correction phase. Some big players have started selling around here in order to get out.
(3) Although there was a clean breakout with a c&h from a major resistance point (classic major resistance breakout,) many people seem unaware that it's a big deal and are still anxoius.
(4) Many of the biggest players don't plan on selling here, but some big players are
(5) The overall market sentiment stands that Bitcoin             is long-term bull, even the short term bears, possibly reaching 10k+ in the form of a huge bubble.

Thus, I think we can go four likely ways:
(1) We consolidate here, or possibly retest the trendline
(2) Retest of next level of resistance, and failure, resulting in a bigger triangle
(3) Retest of ATH             , either double topping or creating a c&h as bagholders who bought at the top sell to get out.
(4) There is a huge selloff at a nearby resistance point triggering a larger correction and mid-term trend change (unlikely)

I have opened a long position, and will add to it if we successfully break out of ATH             in a clean manner. My stops are very liberal just incase we retest the trendline .

Good luck!
Good job! I keep watching that trendline, as well as some other one from before reaching the ATH that are resonating right now. My thought is we are still in a Bull trend until we are not, and so far there isn't enough evidence to prove that it is over, although we might be close.
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