Bitcoin’s historical price action is known for its cyclical behavior — driven not only by supply dynamics like halving events, but also by global macroeconomic forces. This week, leading crypto macro analyst TechDev released a widely discussed model projecting that Bitcoin may be entering a new explosive phase, closely linked to a shift in monetary policy, global liquidity cycles, and risk asset rotation.
At BIT500, we see this as more than a theory — it’s a playbook. Understanding macro-driven crypto cycles gives institutional and high-net-worth investors a clear advantage. And, when used properly, it can become the foundation for consistent alpha generation in the digital asset space.
TechDev’s Model: Liquidity as the True Driver
According to TechDev, Bitcoin’s major uptrends are synchronized with global liquidity expansions. In particular, the model links Bitcoin price surges with:
Falling real interest rates,
Expanding global M2 money supply,
Weakening U.S. dollar (DXY decline).
This pattern played out in 2016–2017 and again in 2020–2021. As global central banks prepare to shift toward more accommodative policies — especially amid slowing GDP growth and rising debt burdens — similar conditions may be taking shape for late 2025 and into 2026.
BIT500 analysts agree: the macro landscape is increasingly favorable for risk-on positioning, especially in hard assets like Bitcoin.
On-Chain Indicators Confirm the Thesis
Supporting the macro thesis is a growing set of on-chain signals. Our internal models — as well as public indicators like Dormancy Flow, MVRV ratio, and Realized Cap metrics — show long-term holders are accumulating, while short-term holder activity has flattened.
The decline in exchange reserves, increased self-custody trends, and decreased miner selling pressure all align with prior pre-bull market phases. This combination of tightening supply and macro liquidity can act as fuel for the next leg up — one that could catch passive investors off-guard.
How BIT500 Capitalizes on Bitcoin Cycles
At BIT500, we convert insights into execution. Our team applies cycle-based, quantitative strategies to capture asymmetric upside while managing downside risk.
Here’s how we turn macro analysis into market performance:
Phased Capital Deployment
We deploy capital in staggered allocations, entering during compression phases and scaling in as trend confirmation emerges — minimizing exposure during volatility and maximizing return during expansions.
Volatility Harvesting
We implement delta-neutral and volatility-arbitrage strategies across Bitcoin derivatives markets, generating income in all phases of the cycle — especially when price is range-bound.
Multi-Asset Rotation Models
Based on cyclical rotation, we dynamically adjust exposure between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and select altcoins. These models are tested to outperform static portfolios across halving-based and macro cycles.
Custom Risk Monitoring Systems
BIT500 clients benefit from our proprietary Cycle Risk Dashboard, which sends alerts when market structure shifts — enabling proactive rebalancing rather than reactive trading.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s next major price movement is likely to be shaped not just by crypto-native factors, but by broader shifts in global liquidity, interest rates, and investor sentiment. TechDev’s research confirms what BIT500 has long modeled — that understanding economic cycles is key to anticipating large-scale Bitcoin breakouts.
For investors seeking not just exposure but performance, the coming months represent a rare window of opportunity. At BIT500, we don’t just track cycles — we build strategies to monetize them with discipline and precision.
At BIT500, we see this as more than a theory — it’s a playbook. Understanding macro-driven crypto cycles gives institutional and high-net-worth investors a clear advantage. And, when used properly, it can become the foundation for consistent alpha generation in the digital asset space.
TechDev’s Model: Liquidity as the True Driver
According to TechDev, Bitcoin’s major uptrends are synchronized with global liquidity expansions. In particular, the model links Bitcoin price surges with:
Falling real interest rates,
Expanding global M2 money supply,
Weakening U.S. dollar (DXY decline).
This pattern played out in 2016–2017 and again in 2020–2021. As global central banks prepare to shift toward more accommodative policies — especially amid slowing GDP growth and rising debt burdens — similar conditions may be taking shape for late 2025 and into 2026.
BIT500 analysts agree: the macro landscape is increasingly favorable for risk-on positioning, especially in hard assets like Bitcoin.
On-Chain Indicators Confirm the Thesis
Supporting the macro thesis is a growing set of on-chain signals. Our internal models — as well as public indicators like Dormancy Flow, MVRV ratio, and Realized Cap metrics — show long-term holders are accumulating, while short-term holder activity has flattened.
The decline in exchange reserves, increased self-custody trends, and decreased miner selling pressure all align with prior pre-bull market phases. This combination of tightening supply and macro liquidity can act as fuel for the next leg up — one that could catch passive investors off-guard.
How BIT500 Capitalizes on Bitcoin Cycles
At BIT500, we convert insights into execution. Our team applies cycle-based, quantitative strategies to capture asymmetric upside while managing downside risk.
Here’s how we turn macro analysis into market performance:
Phased Capital Deployment
We deploy capital in staggered allocations, entering during compression phases and scaling in as trend confirmation emerges — minimizing exposure during volatility and maximizing return during expansions.
Volatility Harvesting
We implement delta-neutral and volatility-arbitrage strategies across Bitcoin derivatives markets, generating income in all phases of the cycle — especially when price is range-bound.
Multi-Asset Rotation Models
Based on cyclical rotation, we dynamically adjust exposure between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and select altcoins. These models are tested to outperform static portfolios across halving-based and macro cycles.
Custom Risk Monitoring Systems
BIT500 clients benefit from our proprietary Cycle Risk Dashboard, which sends alerts when market structure shifts — enabling proactive rebalancing rather than reactive trading.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s next major price movement is likely to be shaped not just by crypto-native factors, but by broader shifts in global liquidity, interest rates, and investor sentiment. TechDev’s research confirms what BIT500 has long modeled — that understanding economic cycles is key to anticipating large-scale Bitcoin breakouts.
For investors seeking not just exposure but performance, the coming months represent a rare window of opportunity. At BIT500, we don’t just track cycles — we build strategies to monetize them with discipline and precision.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.