BTCUSD Perspective And Levels: 5K Or The Top?

10 Okt 2017

BTCUSD Update: Impressive move to 4940 which now puts this market within striking distance of 5k with a proportional possibility of 5109 (2.618 extension of current swing). Any hesitation from here also brings up the massive double top scenario which is why I am staying away from all of these markets at the moment. In my opinion, the higher it goes, the higher the risk.

I have written about the possible bearish C Wave which never triggered (4109 support held) and the large resistance zone that had to be compromised in order for this market to prove its strength (4548 top of the zone taken out). Since that zone has been taken out, this market has been pushing aggressively toward the 5k high. I can now say the market has proven itself, and there are new levels that may offer swing trade possibilities that I will write about since they are present, BUT I am still suspect of this move especially in light of the double top.

If this market pushes beyond 5k, it is going to generate even more attention than it is getting now,, attracting more and more longs who will be the source of selling momentum when this market retests supports. i was using this market as a guide for the alt coins since a few weeks ago, they were all playing follow the leader, which is no longer the case. Fundamental factors, software updates, drama, whatever you want to claim is the reason, the fact remains that the alt coins are not following the leader now. I really don't need to know why.

This lack of following makes me very cautious and prevents me from buying anything at the moment. If BTC retraces to its nearest support levels, I am curious to see how the alt coins are affected. Will they do the opposite and push highs? I am not betting on it.

4629 is the .382 support of the current bullish swing which is a reasonable level for this market to retest, when the selling momentum returns. A reversal at that level can offer a swing trade opportunity since the structure is in place now, so I will consider it, but my target expectations from there will be very conservative. I have to wait until the retest in order to perform the projections.

A significant break below 4629, will likely take price back to the 4432 to 4304 support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing) which would need to hold if this market is going to at least retest the highs, which again can offer a possible swing trade setup but if this area breaks, it can signal a much larger sell off, especially if the 5k top is basically intact. (Double top scenario).

In summary, I cannot help but to be extremely cautious at highs like these. There is no real selling at the moment, or any major signs of reversal yet. I simply do not like buying highs because of the potential selling that can follow. A retrace to the 4629 area can at least offer some decent profit potential, but validation is required (this is why I won't simply place a GTC limit order at that price). Sure I want to be long, but NOT at the current level of risk. I will wait for the next support and see how it goes from there. When the market aligns with my plan and standard of risk, I will be open to take action.

Comments and questions welcome.