$BTC - Further Consolidation Breakout/Failure Areas $XLM $ETH

4 Jan 2018

If you've been following my posts, basically everything applies that I stated in the quoted post but I'll update some of my thoughts on current conditions..

-I believe we're seeing a change in behavior here which makes me lean towards healthy consolidation rather than defcon 5-
Overall right this last 24 hours we've passed the first resistance line/symmetrical triangle to the upside, so this is leading me to *lean* towards this current period being healthy consolidation.

So if we can get a 4 hour close above the current highest resistance trend line around about 15.3k Coinbase then we'll try to consolidate the 15.3k to 17.5k range. Riskier traders can certainly trade the range but beware of your support and resistance lines and know that the support can still fail at any moment.

Keep in mind as long as BTC is under the 17.5k number it is still technically in danger of being wrecked to the downside as the head and shoulders on the long frame is still in play.

Massive Failure - if BTC has a close below the 13k area Coinbase then the head and shoulders looks likely which means we could see some big time downside to 8k area before legitimate support is found. 10k is also support but more psychological than anything, I do not see that as strong.

But again I'm not leaning towards that scenario here, definitely seeing this as healthy consolidation..
Let's check out the daily
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This actually looks pretty good, bucking the trend for now. If this new daily candle ends higher than the one that ended today then I'd start leaning into a long position most likely.

All indicators suggesting we're seeing a reversal in progress
RSI - broke the downtrend on 4hour
MACD - crossed bullish on 4 hour, would look for daily to cross bullish as lagging confirmation on overall direction for next move
OBV - showing early signs of bullish divergence
Overall pattern here of last day is a falling wedge witch typically gets broken to upside so look for confirmation!

Confirmation for further consolidation - 4 hour close above 15.3k Coinbase will likely lead to BTC playing between the next couple fib ranges from high 14ks to about 15.7k

Confirmation to Full Breakout - If BTC can get a close above 17.5k area Coinbase on good volume then I'd be leaning massively into a full on breakout likely to the 22k to 25k area before serious resistance is met.


None of this is financial advice.