#BTC Snapshot 19.06.24
With the US markets closed for Juneteenth we might see BTC stabilise after a near breakdown yesterday. Here's my read of where we are and my current short term targets, interested to hear your thoughts!
Macro - Bullish
The US retail sales figure came in yesterday at 0.1 down on the expected 0.2, bad news for the economy. As we've discussed before whats bad for the economy is often good for BTC.
This works as the FEDs response to a faltering economy would be to lower interest rates, which increases investment into risk assets like BTC.
Immediately following the retail sales announcement BTC actually started to breakdown on its support, suggesting that the US didn't see this having much impact. Asia however was a different story and through the Asia session they bought the dip, seemingly gambling on an increased chance that the FED reduces rates in September.
Technicals - Bullish
Yesterday we broke our lower support and trendline looking almost certain to breakdown before Asia bought the dip.
Bouncing back into our range highlights the bullish falling wedge again. A pattern that preceded our breakout back in mid May.
I don't think we get a breakout today but we might at least get a move up to the top trendline.
ETF Inflows - Bearish
Another big outflow. 150m out most likely profit taking by the short term holders.
Tl:DR
Pretty amazing support held yesterday and we have to take that a bullish sign.
The overall chart pattern is bullish so we could see some upside today.
I'd still be very cautious though with over 700m in ETF outflows over the past 4 days its going to be very hard for us to breakout.
Long term I remain bullish - rate cuts in Q3 (September) I think will be the trigger for a breakout.
Targets
As usual I'll just respond to price action rather than try to predict.
If we break below $64,640 short to $63,460 ($60,800 stretch target).
If we break above $67,350 long to $69,850.
Macro - Bullish
The US retail sales figure came in yesterday at 0.1 down on the expected 0.2, bad news for the economy. As we've discussed before whats bad for the economy is often good for BTC.
This works as the FEDs response to a faltering economy would be to lower interest rates, which increases investment into risk assets like BTC.
Immediately following the retail sales announcement BTC actually started to breakdown on its support, suggesting that the US didn't see this having much impact. Asia however was a different story and through the Asia session they bought the dip, seemingly gambling on an increased chance that the FED reduces rates in September.
Technicals - Bullish
Yesterday we broke our lower support and trendline looking almost certain to breakdown before Asia bought the dip.
Bouncing back into our range highlights the bullish falling wedge again. A pattern that preceded our breakout back in mid May.
I don't think we get a breakout today but we might at least get a move up to the top trendline.
ETF Inflows - Bearish
Another big outflow. 150m out most likely profit taking by the short term holders.
Tl:DR
Pretty amazing support held yesterday and we have to take that a bullish sign.
The overall chart pattern is bullish so we could see some upside today.
I'd still be very cautious though with over 700m in ETF outflows over the past 4 days its going to be very hard for us to breakout.
Long term I remain bullish - rate cuts in Q3 (September) I think will be the trigger for a breakout.
Targets
As usual I'll just respond to price action rather than try to predict.
If we break below $64,640 short to $63,460 ($60,800 stretch target).
If we break above $67,350 long to $69,850.
Penafian
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