Bitcoin

Is Bitcoins NUPL showing us we already had 2 cycle Tops ?

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As explained by Trading View
"Indicator Overview NET UNREALISED PROFIT LOSS - NUPL
This indicator is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:
**Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
**Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved
It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Bitcoin can drop due to several factors.
One significant reason is the correction in Bitcoin's price
This price correction can push the NUPL indicator closer to the fear area, which begins after a drop below 0.25.
Additionally, short-term holders (STH) may still be experiencing capitulation, indicating that new investors are still underwater.
This can cause the NUPL to reflect deeper pessimism among newer investors, even if the overall market sentiment shows signs of optimism.

SO, we can see from the chart how, back in 2021, NUPL went up and peaked twice - each occasion was around the 1st major ATH and then Cycle ATH in Nov 2021.
Also note how the NUPL was lower the 2nd time round as Most major profit taking had been taken in March and so the next lowest Buy price was on the Dip before PA began to rise, and so the profit margin was lower

We have just experienced a similar thing this cycle..The peaks of profit taking were a similar number of days apart and om a similar Range to 2021
And now, we see the NUPL Dropping.
This is. to remind you, the fact that PA is dropping and Short term holders, who bought High, are now in Loss, underwater.

Does this mean that we are at cycle end ?
NOT AT ALL
But it does very clearly show how all th epeople that said "This time is different" WERE RIGHT
So, Hang on Guys and Gals, - it is different,
Keep your eyes on NUPL,it is a great way of seeing Market Profits and how, when nthis is high, Profit taking is very likely to happen
It is also a great signal as to when to BUY, when this is Low....it is usually because PA is LOW

Penafian

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