BTC Between 112.6k and 117k: Trade the Pivot, Not the Ego

21 Ogo

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Market Overview
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BTC is consolidating below 117k after a clean rejection, pressing a major HTF support around 112.6k. The pullback is orderly, with intraday downside inside a still constructive 1D/1W trend. ⚖️

• Momentum: 📉 Tactically bearish — intradays trend down while 1D/1W remains broadly bullish.
  
• Key levels:
  - Resistances (HTF/MTF): 115.5–116.5k (4H–12H supply), 117,063 (240 Pivot), 124,277 (D Pivot).
  - Supports (HTF): 112,646 (240 Pivot), 111,959 (prior W High), 110–109k (lower liquidity zone).
  
• Volumes: Overall normal; moderate on 4H/15m → no climax, orderly pressure.
  
• Multi-timeframe signals: 15m→12H trending down; 1D/1W still up. Holding 112.6k keeps daily structure constructive; a decisive close below opens 111.96k then 110–109k.
  
• Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (risk-off) — aligns with momentum and caps rebounds while below 117,063.
  

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Trading Playbook
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Stay defensive: prioritize fade-the-bounce below 117k, while watching for a clean bullish reaction at 112.6k for tactical longs. 🧭

• Global bias: Overall NEUTRE VENTE below 117,063; primary invalidation on 4H/12H close > 117,063.
  
• Opportunities:
  - Rebound short: sell 114.5–116.0k toward 113.2k then 112.7k (while < 117,063).
  - Tactical long: buy a wick + reclaim at 112.8–112.6k toward 114.8k then 117.1k.
  - Bullish breakout: add only on confirmed reclaim > 117,063 toward 120–124k.
  
• Risk zones / invalidations:
  - Breakdown: a 2H/4H close < 112,646 invalidates tactical longs and exposes 111,959 then 110–109k.
  - Reclaim: a 12H close > 117,063 invalidates rebound shorts.
  
• Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
  - Jackson Hole: potential hawkish tone post-FOMC minutes (inflation-focused) → headwind for risk.
  - Energy: oil rebound on US draws → short-term inflation pressure, supports risk-off.
  - Geopolitics: Middle East/Ukraine tensions → headline risk and volatility.
  
• Action plan:
  - Preferred setup (reactive long at HTF support):
  - Entry: 112.8–112.6k after wick and 1H reclaim
  - Stop: < 111,959 (1H/2H close)
  - TP1: 114.8k; TP2: 117,063; TP3: 120k
  - R/R: ~2.0–2.8 depending on execution
  

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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Overall, intradays push lower into an HTF support that higher timeframes still defend.

• 1W/1D: Higher-timeframe structure intact while 112.6k holds; potential rebounds toward 117.1k if a clean pivot reaction prints.
  
• 12H/6H/4H/2H: Bearish bias with lower highs/lows; 114.5–116.5k remains a sell zone; watch for acceleration if 112.6k breaks.
  
• 1H/30m/15m: Bearish drift, micro-range 113.2–114.6k; mean-reversion possible but sellers in control without volume extremes.
  
• Key signal: 112,646/111,959 support confluence vs. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in VENTE → decisive range battle; the break will define the next leg.
  

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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro risk-off (Fed/energy/geopolitics) weighs on sentiment while on-chain signals show timid demand near highs.

• Macro events: Markets focus on Powell at Jackson Hole after inflation-leaning minutes; oil rebound adds to inflation angle; geopolitics raises risk premium.
  
• Bitcoin analysis: Price ~113–114k; Monthly bullish, Weekly neutral, Daily bearish; US spot ETF outflows vs. HK listings — mixed institutional signals consistent with consolidation below 117k.
  
• On-chain data: 1Y MVRV Z-Score slightly < 0; subdued activity/fees near ATHs → modest spot demand, market catalyst-sensitive.
  
• Expected impact: Macro/on-chain backdrop supports an NEUTRE VENTE bias while 112.6k is pressured and no pro-risk catalyst emerges.
  

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Key Takeaways
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Market is testing a key HTF support with intradays bearish but no capitulation.
- Overall trend: tactically bearish, higher-timeframe bullish if 112.6k holds.
- Most relevant setup: reactive long at 112.8–112.6k with tight stop; otherwise fade 114.5–116k.
- Key macro factor: Jackson Hole tone that could trigger range resolution.
Stay disciplined: wait for confirmation at the pivot — the break will decide. 🔎

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21 Ogo

Nota

MACRO + BTC ROUNDUP
- 🌍 Geopolitical risk ticks up as Russia hits Ukrainian gas infrastructure and Israel steps up in Gaza, a headwind for risk and potential energy/inflation tails.
- 🏦 Markets await Powell at Jackson Hole, with several previews hinting at support for a September rate cut.
- 📊 Cross-asset signals are mixed: DXY edged higher, gold was flat, the yuan hit a 1-week high, NZD fell on cut bets, and ASX 200 opened +1%.
- 🛢️ WTI rebounded above $62.50 after a larger-than-expected U.S. crude draw, a mild inflationary impulse.
- 🇫🇷 France’s August PMIs beat: Composite 49.8 and Manufacturing 49.9, suggesting stabilization that is marginally supportive for risk.
- ₿ BTC trades near £84,154, with traders eyeing $111K support and a risk of a quick sweep toward ~$108K before any bounce.
- 📉 U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows on 20 August (IBIT -$219M; FBTC -$7M), and ecoinometrics flags a ~10-day neutral flows regime with wide outcomes pending Powell.
- 🏛️ A report claims Harvard allocated ~$117M to a BTC ETF, signaling ongoing institutional interest, but the headline is unverified here.
- 🐋 On-chain chatter notes “Accumulator” wallets buying the dip, and seasonality points to September as a local bottom in 4 of the last 5 years.

Sentiment: Neutral-to-cautious into Powell; headline-sensitive.
Takeaway: If Powell leans dovish, odds favor $111K holding; if hawkish, risk of a break below $110K with a quick sweep toward ~$108K.