Bitcoin: Endgame. It is over $50,000 - how is this going to end?
Today, we are going to do a macro-outlook on Bitcoin as it goes into its parabolic winter wave followed by the start of the bear market. Crossing the $50,000 threshold is a large psycholical breakthrough, especially for holders in cryptospace who watched a 53% correction nullify almost all gains in 2021 - and the correction was even steeper for assets such as Ethereum, Bitcoin and smaller-cap cryptocurrencies. While the outlook is overall very bright, there are still some rough patches to come before complete euphoria.
In July 2017, Bitcoin experienced a severe correction, falling to $1936 per Bitcoin. It then began its 568% rally towards new all time highs in a matter of fewer than 6 months, topping out just below $20,000 on December 20, 2017. In between these two points, crypto's leading asset has followed a journey that thus far reflects where we are in this cycle relatively well. We are currently running with a nice bullish tailwind, increasing 60% since lows on July 20. August has been a favorable month, but September will likely provide some choppy waters. September is traditionally a bearish month for Bitcoin and will likely provide a shakeout down towards the bull market support band, ultimately provide confirmation, and thus the parabolic move will then begin.
In 2017, we had a 40% correction from wick to wick in September - going from $4933 down towards $3097. The first major bullish wave started afterwards, increasing the price of Bitcoin 110% over a 6 week period. Bitcoin then had its final correction before the second parabolic wave, correcting 27%, and then gaining 260% from the bottom of the correction to its peak in late December in a matter of just 6 weeks.
This isn't to say that Bitcoin will follow the exact same pattern. These movements could take longer, stretching towards Spring 2022 which might actually provide higher overall returns but less quickly and with another correction or two. I speculate we are now approaching Bitcoin's bullish endgame. We have elements from 2013 with the large mid-cycle correction and elements of 2017.
Overall targets:
August - a high of about $57,000 before bears take control for a short time again
September - a fall towards $45,000 (21%) and then climbing back
October - New all time highs (over $65,000)
November - Bitcoin cracks $100,000 before another 20%+ correction
December / January - The bull market peak, lots of FOMO and euphoria, Bitcoins touches $200,000 before coming back down to Earth, ultimately bottoming at prior ATHs of $65,000 in 2022 / 2023.
In July 2017, Bitcoin experienced a severe correction, falling to $1936 per Bitcoin. It then began its 568% rally towards new all time highs in a matter of fewer than 6 months, topping out just below $20,000 on December 20, 2017. In between these two points, crypto's leading asset has followed a journey that thus far reflects where we are in this cycle relatively well. We are currently running with a nice bullish tailwind, increasing 60% since lows on July 20. August has been a favorable month, but September will likely provide some choppy waters. September is traditionally a bearish month for Bitcoin and will likely provide a shakeout down towards the bull market support band, ultimately provide confirmation, and thus the parabolic move will then begin.
In 2017, we had a 40% correction from wick to wick in September - going from $4933 down towards $3097. The first major bullish wave started afterwards, increasing the price of Bitcoin 110% over a 6 week period. Bitcoin then had its final correction before the second parabolic wave, correcting 27%, and then gaining 260% from the bottom of the correction to its peak in late December in a matter of just 6 weeks.
This isn't to say that Bitcoin will follow the exact same pattern. These movements could take longer, stretching towards Spring 2022 which might actually provide higher overall returns but less quickly and with another correction or two. I speculate we are now approaching Bitcoin's bullish endgame. We have elements from 2013 with the large mid-cycle correction and elements of 2017.
Overall targets:
August - a high of about $57,000 before bears take control for a short time again
September - a fall towards $45,000 (21%) and then climbing back
October - New all time highs (over $65,000)
November - Bitcoin cracks $100,000 before another 20%+ correction
December / January - The bull market peak, lots of FOMO and euphoria, Bitcoins touches $200,000 before coming back down to Earth, ultimately bottoming at prior ATHs of $65,000 in 2022 / 2023.
Penafian
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