Smart Money Concepts swing trading odyssey|Ep.10|6R short|BTC

16 Mei 2023

Testing my own Phase B pullback limit order entry model for swing trading, using ICT's SMC toolkit.

Dollar strength, bullish weekly candle close on the DXY.

HTF demand zone broken to downside on BTC and other assets.

My phase B breakout consolidation was broken (invalidating macro bullsh megaphone) and resetting model to phase A.

Distribution & supply zone formed on BTC Daily TF, rebalanced/mitigated and broken to down side creating head & shoulders pattern triggering phase B entry conditions.

Initial entry from Weekly bearish order block/ mitigation block & Weekly fair value gap for a 3R short. Second limit order higher up at top of 1h BPR(balanced price range) + Daily CE(consequent encroachment) + rPOC(range point of control). Screenshot of lower timeframe to see 6R short entry:


Stop losses for both entries above 4h swing high and above the first fair value gap, in case of a stop hunt.

Target is alive Weekly timeframe bullish breaker block, macro inverted head & shoulders neckline and HTF fair value gap.

16 Mei 2023

Nota

"My phase B breakout consolidation was broken (invalidating macro bullsh megaphone) and resetting model **to phase A.**"

I meant to say "..and resetting model, switching bias from long to short."

Won't let me edit, sorry for any confusion!😅

16 Mei 2023

Nota

Didn't mean to write "alive". Phone autocorrect, perhaps. 😑

29 Mei 2023

Nota

So BTC went 1.8R then decided it was risk on commodity/tech stock again and wanted to move in sympathy with Nasdaq.

It ignored the 1h BPR/ imbalance fill I had marked out and re filled the daily FVG again, and tapping the PMO (Previous Month's Open) - which is actually a monthly bearish order block.

I have a feeling 1h imbalances should possibly be disregarded when swing trading... Will keep an eye on that.

Anyway I set my stop just above the daily FVG & PMO because I knew that was a possibility. Honestly though, when it comes to these continuation swing trades, I sometimes feel like I'm gambling; it's a lack of certainty. Tons of SMC traders can pick a reversal swing trade from OTE in discount or premium... but continuations? Now THAT'S the real challenge.

BTC is currently chilling at entry which is the Point of Control for the range.
Let the chips fall where they may.

29 Mei 2023

Nota

29 Mei 2023

Nota

ICT always says it's Time & Price. TIME coming before price. I think my price game is good, but when it comes to swing trading, I'm ONLY using price. For a little while I've been thinking it's the lack of the time element that is the missing piece when it comes to continuation swing trades. In day trading I wouldn't trade without TIME being a primary factor in choosing whether to take a trade or not.

With these swing trades... well, look at S&P500. We should have seasonal tendcies kicking in to the downside, but it's just made a new high. Having said that, Gold and Silver are following seasonal tendencies, DESPITE my initial fundamental bullish bias due to the impending bank failures.

I'll put a pin in it. 📌

31 Mei 2023

Nota

looking decent so far. if it continues, will take half off below the relative equal lows (first arrow down at the wicks):

7 Jun 2023

Nota

First target hit. I changed it to 75% because the DXY looks like it could reverse from this supply zone from a technical standpoint. Fundamentals for Dollar & BTC remain the same so it comes down to technicals for me.

Liquidity has now been taken so I will not add to my trade even if it comes back further to 6R entry.

Terminus is still the weekly FVG & +Breaker but unless more news comes out to fuel the move down, as stop losses have already been taken out, BTC may just go sideways and accumulate rathet than go lower.