BTC 4H Long - Wyckoff Accumulation

18 Dis 2021

While the whole world and all of CT seems bearish with sub-40K next, I'm seeing something different. While we may see new lows eventually, we have a nice accumulation on the 4H forming that will probably lead to a short squeeze bounce. The order block around 57K remains untouched since the giant drop with some inefficiencies on the way there. I see it hitting 55K at the very least before any new lows with a decent chance of hitting 56.5-57K.

20 Dis 2021

Nota

It's been wick city since publishing with a lot of tests on that 4H spring. Zooming in to the 3m chart, the 4H spring actually formed an order block and the tests so far have just been order block mitigations. I could always be wrong in the end, but for now I'm sticking to my guns until that spring gets taken out.

21 Dis 2021

Dagangan aktif

Price Stalled at the 1H Order Block formed from Dec 16, so I sold the rest of my initial position. I blindly had a small short in the middle of it that hit, which gave me a great new entry. Going down to the 15m, it looks like distribution, so I'm playing it as that for now with new entries in the inefficiency. I have TPs starting at the second 1H Order Block that formed on the way up that are in confluence of the Fib Golden Pocket for a retrace. I have a new long and final TP set at the first 1H Order Block on the way up. Maybe this is all just nonsense, but that's what stops are for.

22 Dis 2021

Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai

Stopped out, it didn't retrace where I thought it would, waiting to re-assess a new entry. I made the mistake of fully closing that initial long when I should have let a partial still run or break even. My initial 4H Long setup still remains valid.

22 Dis 2021

Dagangan aktif

If something doesn't work, try again. I was stopped out by what I think was the UTAD that formed on the distribution. These things are hard to see coming in the moment and I was getting a little ahead of myself, I thought it'd move faster than it has so far and things would already be in motion. The UTAD formed a 5m OB that it quickly mitigated as another UT. What I failed to notice on my last assessment was the lack of volume towards the old high, meaning it was liquidity and price wanted another go at it. Now there's a node that formed, making me think it's a protected high (temporarily, for the time being). A 1H possible order block formed where I got a new position from. I added a new TP at the descending triangle's edge in case the breakout-retest-resumption is in play and it doesn't go any deeper into it, otherwise my other targets and new long is the same as before.

23 Dis 2021

Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai

Bzzt, wrong again on these smaller time frames so far. No real retrace (yet), took a small partial and then stop hit. 4H still in play though which will take a while and is the overall move still. Waiting for new entries.

26 Dis 2021

Nota

When in doubt, zoom out. The 4H still has price between the order blocks of 46K and 57K. It bounced as I thought it would, but didn't retrace early like I thought it would and I was wrong on smaller time frames. What I thought was a distribution, ended up being a re-accumulation for it go higher. But, once it went after one previous high for a liquidity grab, not much was stopping it from continuing until it took out all of the recent highs from the wedge. Price stalled after the final sweep and started developing into another distribution. The question remains, does it have enough fuel to go higher? Now, I think it's finally time for that retrace, probably at least into the golden pocket. I think price will touch 46K before it hits 57K again. I still think the ultimate bigger picture is still down though.