#BTC - Inflation Data Trading Plan

11 Sep

Headline & Core Inflation
13:30 (GMT) see's the release of the atest round of inflation data. The results here are pretty black and white high inflation (over 2.6% YOY for Inflation, over 3.2% for Core Inflation) is bad. End of.

We need inflation t come down so we can cut the rates.

Heres where any predictions get a bit tricky though. Very good inflation data 2% like 2% or under could mean we get a big rate cut (50bps is a 33% chance atm). That would send the market wild. Coming in at 2.6% / 2.5% will give us a 25bps rate cut - which is bullish but might be priced in to some degree.

Either way, low inflation good. High infation bad.

Inflation Rate (YOY)
Predicted = 2.6% Priced In
<2.6% = Bullish
>2.6% = Bearish

Core Inflation Rate (YOY) - Inflation data not including food and fuel.
Predicted = 3.2% Priced In
<3.2% = Bullish
>3.2% = Bearish

Technicals
In terms of the charts I'd say thats an ascending triangle.

Nice little series of higher lows being capped by flat resistance at 57.5k.

Usually a bullish set up, but realistically thats not going to mean alot if inflation is 9%.

Trading Plan
What we can say though is that the overhead resistance starting at $57.5 is basically toast if we get a good inflation read so If we get a good read go long.

Targets are not clear but after the immediate cluster theres an old support/resistance at 63.7k so maybe target 60k (59.9k to be safe) and 63.7k incase we blow through it.

Bad inflation = short. It could be bad but still take incramental profit to be safe at support, so 53.5k, 50k and maybe hold a bit back as we could easily sink much lower.

Prediction - 2.6% price pumps to 60k area (I hope!)